瑞达期货 发表于 2010-10-22 09:25

<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-hansi-font-family: 黑体">瑞达期货:<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>22</SPAN>日宏观视点<SPAN lang=EN-US><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">[</FONT></SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">全球主要指数</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">]<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></B></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">10</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">21</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日收盘:上证指数</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2983.53</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">,跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.68%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">;沪深</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">300</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">指数</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">3374.69</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">,跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.65%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">;中小板指</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">6577.45</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">,涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.18%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">;恒生指数</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> 23649.48</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">,涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.39%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">;德</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">DAX 6611.01</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.33%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">;道琼工业</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">11146.57 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.35%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">;纳斯达克</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2459.07 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.09%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">;</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">人民币对美元中间价</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">6.6754 6695</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">,</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">升值</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">59</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">个基点;</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">CRB</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">指数</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">550.76 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.85%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">;</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">BDI 2720.00 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.33%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">;</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">GlobalCoal</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">煤炭价格周指(</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">NEWC INDEX 96.91 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2.06%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">,</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">RB INDEX 87.89 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.40%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">)</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">[</FONT></SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">瑞达国内宏观观点</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">]<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold">1.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold">中国国家统计局周四公布,</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">三季度中国国内生产总值</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">(GDP)</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">同比增长</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">9.6%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">,</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">9</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月工业增加值同比增长</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">13.3%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">。三季度</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">GDP</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">和工业增加值比预期的好,或许是央行敢于加息的重要原因,表明中国经济下滑的势头比预计的有所减轻。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold">2.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">9</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">CPI</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">同比上涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">3.6%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">,涨幅创下</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">23</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">个月高点;</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">PPI</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">同比上涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">4.3%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold">国统局发言人盛来运称完成全年<SPAN lang=EN-US>CPI</SPAN>宏观调控目标“是有希望的”,不过国际大宗商品价格续涨会给中国国内带来输入型通胀压力。同时,中国秋粮增收将稳定粮食价格,是影响下半年价格下行的重要因素。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold">3.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold">中国国家统计局新闻发言人盛来运周四称,中国经济三季度出现企稳现象,中国将保持宏观经济政策的连续性,稳定性及灵活性。中国前三季度投资对于<SPAN lang=EN-US>GDP</SPAN>增长的贡献率是<SPAN lang=EN-US>58.8%</SPAN>,消费为<SPAN lang=EN-US>34.4%</SPAN>,进出口为<SPAN lang=EN-US>6.8%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold">4.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">发改委周四发出通知称,将加快推进煤矿企业兼并重组,并要求山西、内蒙古、河南、陜西等重点产煤省区要坚决淘汰落后小煤矿,大力提高煤炭产业集中度,促进煤炭资源连片开发。此外,黑龙江、湖南、四川、贵州、云南等省要加大兼并重组力度,减少煤矿数量。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold">5.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">海关总署</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">21</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日发布信息,截至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">10</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">14</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日,全国海关今年以来累计征收关税和进口环节税</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">10005</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">.</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">9</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">亿元,首破万亿,同比增收</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">3155</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">.</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">6</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">亿元,增长</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">46</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">.</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">%。主要是两方面因素综合作用的结果。一是国民经济发展总体态势良好,进口呈现大幅增长。二是国际市场大宗商品价格震荡上扬。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold">6.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">国家统计局周四公布,中国</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">9</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月粗钢产量达</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">4,795</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">万吨,同比下降</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">5.9%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">,</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">9</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月钢材产量达</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">6,543</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">万吨,同比增长</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">4.5%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">。中国钢铁工业协会常务副会长罗冰生周四表示,今年下半年及四季度中国钢铁产品出口总量将比上半年有明显的回落,主要原因是国际贸易保护主义,人民币升值以及出口退税等原因。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold">7.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">上海证券报周四称,现在不少银行已经对新增平台类贷款发出了“限贷令”,对于还款来源主要依靠财政性资金的公益性项目,监管层要求商业银行不得再发放平台贷款。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><BR><BR><FONT face="Times New Roman">[</FONT></SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">瑞达国际宏观观点</SPAN></B><FONT face="Times New Roman"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt">]<BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"></SPAN></B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">.美国劳工部</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">(Labor Department)</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">周四发布的每周报告显示,截至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">10</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">16</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日当周的首次申请失业救济人数减少</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">23,000</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">人,至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">452,000</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">人。该数据好于预期,但过去几周数据显示,美国就业市场尚无较大改善。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2. </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美国</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">10</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月费城联储制造业指数由之前的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">-0.7</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">升至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">+1.0</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">,但仍低于预期的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">+2.0</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">。显示该区制造业活动扩张步伐仍显缓慢。世界大型企业联合会昨日公布,</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">9</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月份领先指标上升</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.3%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">,符合预期。该指标显示美国经济在持续复苏,但步伐放缓。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">3</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">.欧元区</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">10</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">Markit</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">服务业采购经理人指数</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">(PMI)</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">初值降至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">53.2</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">,为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月以来最低。欧元区各成员国经济增速分化,尤为明显的是德国经济上行被法国经济增长放缓抵消,欧元区服务业增长在减速。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">4</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">.瑞士央行昨日公布的月度报告显示,该行第三季度降低了欧元在其外汇储备中的比例,目前持有的欧元规模占外汇储备的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">55.9%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">,而目前持有的美元占外汇储备比例从第二季度末的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">21.5%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">升至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">24.6%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">今日关注重点:德国</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">10</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">Ifo</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">商业景气指数;加拿大</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">9</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月消费者物价指数;加拿大</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月零售销售  </SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 9.4pt; TEXT-INDENT: -9.4pt; mso-char-indent-count: -1.04"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">[</FONT></SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">观点总结</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">]<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">三季度</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">GDP</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">和工业增加值均好于市场预期,表明中国经济下滑的势头比预计的有所减轻。但</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">CPI</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">的上涨仍然令人担心,且从目前推动物价上涨的因素看,后续</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">CPI</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">仍有创新高的可能。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">欧元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美元(利空);美元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日元(利空);美指(利好);德国国债收益率(利空);美国国债收益率(利空);日本国债收益率(利空);</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">LIBOR</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-F
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