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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">[</FONT></SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">全球主要股指</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">]<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></B></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">9</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">20</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日收盘：上证指数</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2588.71</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.38%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；沪深</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">300</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">指数</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2849.83</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.40%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；中小板指</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">6162.17</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.76%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；恒生指数</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">21977.34</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.03%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；德</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">DAX 6294.58</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.37%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；道琼工业</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">10753.60 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.37%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；纳斯达克</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman"> 2355.83</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.74%</FONT></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">[</FONT></SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">瑞达国内宏观观点</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">]<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></B></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1. </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">欧元集团主席容克表示<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>6</SPAN>日将在布鲁塞尔与温家宝和周小川会面，讨论汇率问题和货币政策。并表示人民币对欧元汇率仍被低估，欧洲需要向中方加大施压，以推动这一状况的改变。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美国总统奥巴马周一表示，中国未尽全力解决人民币问题。奥巴马的言论使美国对人民币汇改尖锐言辞继续升级，美国议员则正考虑通过新立法向中方施压。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0cm; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0cm; BACKGROUND: white; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 10.5pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; mso-border-alt: none black 0cm; mso-shading: windowtext; mso-pattern: solid white; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">2. </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">今年以来，新兴产业政策、区域振兴规划持续成为资本市场关注的热点。以内蒙古资源、新疆基建投资、安徽产业转移、西藏经济增长为主的四大区域投资主题仍将成为市场的热点。<I><SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN></I><SPAN lang=EN-US>3. </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">央行货币政策委员会委员夏斌表示，中国应该考虑允许存款利率自由浮动，以抵消通货膨胀上升的影响，而小幅加息在遏制物价上涨方面的效果并不明显。即使政府在此时上调利率，幅度也不会很大，因此在对实体经济很难奏效。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR><FONT face="Times New Roman">4</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">. </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">中国指数研究院周一公布数据显示，上周</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">(9</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">13</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">-19</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">)</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">房市成交量多数上涨，多数城市已连续第四周出现上涨，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">19</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">个城市价格环比上涨。同期，土地推出量增加，成交量环比微跌。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><FONT face="Times New Roman">5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">. </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">央行周日发布的季度调查结果显示，第三季度感觉物价“高，难以接受”的居民比例较上个季度略有下降，但预期未来物价上涨的居民有所增加。此外，当季有</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">72.2%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">的居民认为房价“过高，难以接受”，较上个季度略降</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.3</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">个百分点，不过较上年同期高</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">7</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">个百分点。未来</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">3</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">个月有购房意愿的居民占比为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">15.6%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，该比例与上个季度持平。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR><FONT face="Times New Roman">6</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">. </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">香港二季度</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">GDP</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">同比实质上升</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">6.5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">％</SPAN><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，而第一季度的同比升幅为８％。由于客运及货运齐升，运输、仓库及通讯业第二季度的净产值升幅加快。股票市场出现整固以及集资活动转趋淡静致使金融、保险、地产及商用服务业第二季度的净产值升幅放缓。受到公营部门工程提速所带动，建造活动显著增加。</SPAN></P></DIV>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1. </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美国</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">9</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月全国住房建筑商信心指数持平于</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">13</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，该数据是一年半以来的最低水平，显示在住房市场停滞的环境下，多数建筑商信心持续低迷，对住宅销售前景持悲观态度。</SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2. </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">欧盟经济和货币事务专员</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">Olli Rehn</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">周一称，欧盟委员会</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">(European Commission)</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">将在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">9</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月份公布欧元区财政政策紧缩提案。该提案将令各业已实施趋紧财政政策的成员国承受更大压力。</SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">3</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">．澳大利亚央行行长</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">Glenn Stevens</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">周一表示，央行可能需要通过加息来抑制澳大利亚经济走强。由于一些国外的不确定因素，本月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">7</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日的澳联储推迟加息行动，由于澳洲经济正受到</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">19</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">世纪以来最大的采矿和能源热潮推动，而且通胀有反弹迹象，所以预计今年年内加息的可能性非常大。</SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">今日关注重点：美联储公布利率决议；澳洲联储公布</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">9</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月货币政策会议记录；英国</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月政府收支短差；加拿大</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月消费者物价指数</SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 10.95pt; TEXT-INDENT: -10.95pt; mso-char-indent-count: -1.04"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">[</FONT></SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">观点总结</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">]<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></B></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">国内股市方面，沪综指周一小幅收低，尽管航空和金融板块受人民币升值及加息传言落空刺激走强，权重板块房地产股跌幅居前拖累大盘。中国官方表态继续落实楼市调控政策，且部分投资者在长假前无心恋战。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">国外方面，欧元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美元（利好）；美元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日元（利空）；美指（利空）；德国国债收益率（利空）；美国国债收益率（利好）；日本国债收益率（利好）；</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">LIBOR</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ' <FONT face=宋体>投资者在长假前无心恋战。<SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT>
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