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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">农产品</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">谷物早盘提示：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘：因提早收获的玉米单产报告令人失望，加之交易商担心作物产量可能会小于预期，周二<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>玉<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>米期货市场连续第四个交易日出现跳涨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>14</SPAN>日国家临时存储<SPAN lang=EN-US>(</SPAN>含中央储备<SPAN lang=EN-US>)</SPAN>玉米交易成交率<SPAN lang=EN-US>13.53%</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>10/11</SPAN>年度澳洲小麦产<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>量将创下五年来最高；<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、截至<SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>月底<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010</SPAN>年早籼稻收购量为<SPAN lang=EN-US>372.7</SPAN>万吨，同比减<SPAN lang=EN-US>30.8%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货方面：目前东北港口优质玉米价格保持稳定，大连港内优质玉米平舱价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1990-2010</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，水分<SPAN lang=EN-US> 14</SPAN>％，持平；广东港口玉米价格走势相对稳定，港内猪料、鸡料玉米成交价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2070</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨上下，持平，<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>深圳港内玉米库存约在<SPAN lang=EN-US>28</SPAN>多万吨，近期进口玉米到货较集中，对内贸玉米价格仍有一定影响；河南商丘直<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>属库优质麦郑<SPAN lang=EN-US>9023</SPAN>出库价<SPAN lang=EN-US>2300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；江西九江早稻收购价<SPAN lang=EN-US>1960</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，水分<SPAN lang=EN-US>≤13.5%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存方面：玉米仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>2798</SPAN>张，郑州强麦仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>4831</SPAN>张，早籼稻仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>2687</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：<SPAN lang=EN-US>C1105</SPAN>合约上方<SPAN lang=EN-US>2050</SPAN>一线压力较大，下方<SPAN lang=EN-US>2027</SPAN>具有强支撑，节前或呈窄幅震荡；下游需求有所回暖，但调控压力增加，节前<SPAN lang=EN-US>WS1105</SPAN>合约或呈高位震荡；<SPAN lang=EN-US>ER1101</SPAN>合约跌破前期支撑，上方均线压力较大，短期偏空思路对待。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">2<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘走势：<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>期棉结算价收在<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>年新高，因稳定的投资基金买盘，同时工厂亦有可能参与买盘。<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月棉花上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.79</SPAN>美分，收报每磅<SPAN lang=EN-US>94.50</SPAN>美分。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 1</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>14</SPAN>日储备棉投放数量为<SPAN lang=EN-US>20018</SPAN>吨，全部成交；平均等级<SPAN lang=EN-US>4.01</SPAN>，较上一日高<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.02</SPAN>；平均长度<SPAN lang=EN-US>28.16</SPAN>，与上一日相比低<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.06</SPAN>；加权平均成交价<SPAN lang=EN-US>19724</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较上一日涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>372</SPAN>元，折<SPAN lang=EN-US>328</SPAN>级成交价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>20288</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨（净重），较上一日涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>382</SPAN>元。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 2</SPAN>、美国农业部<SPAN lang=EN-US>(USDA)</SPAN>在每周作物生长报告中公布，截至<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>日当周，美国棉花生长优良率为<SPAN lang=EN-US>59%</SPAN>，上周为<SPAN lang=EN-US>60%</SPAN>，去年同期为<SPAN lang=EN-US>51%</SPAN>。截至<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>日当周，棉花盛铃率为<SPAN lang=EN-US>56%</SPAN>，上周为<SPAN lang=EN-US>41%</SPAN>，去年同期为<SPAN lang=EN-US>33%</SPAN>，五年均值为<SPAN lang=EN-US>41%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 3</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>Abare:</SPAN>澳大利亚<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010/11</SPAN>年度棉花产量预期自<SPAN lang=EN-US>6</SPAN>月的<SPAN lang=EN-US>140</SPAN>万吨上调至<SPAN lang=EN-US>170</SPAN>万吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 4</SPAN>、农业部对全国<SPAN lang=EN-US>16</SPAN>个省<SPAN lang=EN-US>150</SPAN>个县的<SPAN lang=EN-US>200</SPAN>个棉花高产创建片监测情况显示，今年植棉面积总体持平，棉花长势基本正常。根据对棉花生长的监测情况测产，示范片情况好于全国，全国籽棉单产预计在<SPAN lang=EN-US>260-270</SPAN>公斤<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>亩，按<SPAN lang=EN-US>38%</SPAN>衣分，总产预计略高于<SPAN lang=EN-US>700</SPAN>万吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货方面：棉花指数价格为<SPAN lang=EN-US>18419</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较上一交易日上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>188</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单库存：交易所注册仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>97</SPAN>张，较上一交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>23</SPAN>张，有效预报<SPAN lang=EN-US>32</SPAN>张。（每张对应棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>吨）。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> </SPAN>主产区天气：<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>14</SPAN>日至<SPAN lang=EN-US>17</SPAN>日，较强冷空气将影响我国北方地区，新疆北部、西北地区东部、华北和东北地区将出现大风、降温、降雨（雪）天气。受其影响，上述部分地区将出现初霜冻。此次大风降温天气和霜冻对新疆北部棉花裂铃吐絮、玉米等作物籽粒灌浆不利，但影响不大；对东北地区北部、内蒙古东北部作物籽粒后期灌浆有一定不利影响。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：美棉结算价创下<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>年高位；国内籽棉收购价格预期抬升、国储棉折<SPAN lang=EN-US>328</SPAN>级均价突破<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>万关口，现货棉价连续上涨，棉市维持利多氛围，市场资金保持活跃。郑棉<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>合约震荡收高，期价冲至<SPAN lang=EN-US>19500</SPAN>关口，下方受<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日线支撑，短线维持上行走势，高位获利回吐压力增大，震荡面临加剧。操作上，多单依托<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>日线持有。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><BR><BR>3<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">白糖<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>由于市场方面担心反常天气冲击巴西等国的食糖生产会导致供给紧张，加上最近巴西下雨影响了其食糖出口，在投机基金继续进场买进的推动下，本周二<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>糖市原糖期货价格再创<SPAN lang=EN-US>6</SPAN>月半新高。当日<SPAN lang=EN-US>1010</SPAN>期约糖价暴涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>102</SPAN>个点（<SPAN lang=EN-US>+4.4%</SPAN>），收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>24.36</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅，盘中<SPAN lang=EN-US>1010</SPAN>期约糖价一度创下<SPAN lang=EN-US>24.52</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅的<SPAN lang=EN-US>6</SPAN>个半月新高；<SPAN lang=EN-US>1103</SPAN>期约糖价同时暴涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>86</SPAN>个点（<SPAN lang=EN-US>+3.8%</SPAN>），收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>23.41</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅，盘中<SPAN lang=EN-US>1103</SPAN>期约糖价一度冲击了<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>日以来<SPAN lang=EN-US>23.52</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅的最高点。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>基本面消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1</SPAN>、俄罗斯<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010</SPAN>年或产甜菜糖<SPAN lang=EN-US>300-310</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR>2</SPAN>、截至<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>日巴西中南部地区<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010/11</SPAN>年糖产量达到<SPAN lang=EN-US>2246</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>国内现货：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>国内现货小幅上调，南宁报<SPAN lang=EN-US>5810</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>库存仓单（张）：<SPAN lang=EN-US>9676</SPAN>，有效预报<SPAN lang=EN-US>36</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>国内主产区天气：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>今天白天到晚上，百色、崇左、南宁、防城港、钦州、北海、玉林、贵港等市多云间阴天大部有阵雨或雷雨，局部大雨，我区<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>其它地区多云到晴。<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>南宁市：今天白天到晚上，多云有阵雨，偏东风<SPAN lang=EN-US>1-2</SPAN>级，最高<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>气温<SPAN lang=EN-US>32℃</SPAN>，最低气温<SPAN lang=EN-US>24℃</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR></SPAN>郑糖盘面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>技术上，郑糖<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>合约受上方空头打压而震荡回落，<SPAN lang=EN-US>KDJ</SPAN>指标高位由金叉转为死叉，暗示技术性调整可能到来。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">4</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">粕豆<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘：美豆周二小幅上涨，主要是受玉米和涨势带动，。美豆<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US> 1034 3.5</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>美豆虽然供需面较为宽松，但是在周边市场带动下，期价难以走出良好的下跌行情，在新豆上市前，将会是宽幅震荡的态势。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>主要消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、未来几周美豆将大量收割上市<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、截至<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>日，美豆优良率为<SPAN lang=EN-US>63%</SPAN>，下降了一个百分点。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR></SPAN>现货报价：国内豆粕现货价格有所回调，但幅度不大。哈尔滨地区成交价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3220</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，稳定；山东沿海油厂成交价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3200</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨以上。国产大豆陈豆市场交易清淡，市场等待新豆上市，大连地区的国产大豆价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3800</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。目前进口大豆按照<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月合约点价成本在<SPAN lang=EN-US>4000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>库存方面：大豆仓单<SPAN lang=EN-US>12249</SPAN>张；豆粕<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>操作建议：供需报告利空，加息等利空消息同样带来利空影响，市场多空因素转化，上方压力位再次得到确认。预计大豆豆粕近期走势将以震荡偏弱为主，操作以偏空思路对待，短线空单参与或选择观望。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">5 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">油脂：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘：受<SPAN lang=EN-US>N0PA</SPAN>报告数据及油粕套利解套影响，<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>豆油继续<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>小幅回落，主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月合约收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>41.71</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅。因交易商转而关注<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>未来数月供应增加的前景，<SPAN lang=EN-US>BMD</SPAN>毛棕榈油自一个月高位回落，主<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>力<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月合约收低<SPAN lang=EN-US>33</SPAN>令吉于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2643</SPAN>令吉<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息：国际方面，马来西亚船运调查机构<SPAN lang=EN-US>SGS</SPAN>公布，马来西<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>亚<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>1-10</SPAN>日棕榈油出口<SPAN lang=EN-US>383456</SPAN>吨，较<SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>1-10</SPAN>日的<SPAN lang=EN-US>395186</SPAN>吨下滑<SPAN lang=EN-US> 3%</SPAN>。国内方面，商务部信息显示，棕榈油本期实际到港<SPAN lang=EN-US>6.19</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>，下期预报到港<SPAN lang=EN-US>18.94</SPAN>万吨，本月实际到港<SPAN lang=EN-US>16.99</SPAN>万吨，下月预报<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>到港<SPAN lang=EN-US>26.34</SPAN>万吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> </SPAN>现货：昨日油脂现货价格保持坚挺，小幅提高，沿海四级豆<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>油约为<SPAN lang=EN-US>7700-8000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；港口棕榈油报价集中在<SPAN lang=EN-US>7260-7450</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>；国内四级菜油出厂价格处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>8600-9000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨水平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单：豆油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>6252</SPAN>张，较上一交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>924</SPAN>张；棕榈油，<SPAN lang=EN-US> 1860</SPAN>张；菜油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>8879</SPAN>张；均无变化。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：市场缺乏更多利多因素的提振，周三<SPAN lang=EN-US>MPOB</SPAN>报告公<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>布在即，市场预期马来西亚库存水平将有明显上升，在出口数据<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>疲软的情况下，<SPAN lang=EN-US>BMD</SPAN>棕榈油的反弹之路堪忧，国内油脂或将受到<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>影响。就近期行情而言，保持震荡偏空的调整思路为宜。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">金属产品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">锌、铝交易提示<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：隔夜伦锌宽幅震荡，收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>日均线交汇处，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2166</SPAN>美元，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.42%</SPAN>；隔夜伦铝尾盘走强，突破<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>日均线，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2152</SPAN>美元，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.03%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>内外盘比价情况：锌内外比价最高<SPAN lang=EN-US>8.49</SPAN>，最低<SPAN lang=EN-US>8.28</SPAN>；铝内外比价位于<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.30-7.47</SPAN>之间。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>美联储短期内或宣布新资产购买计划<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2.</SPAN>欧元区<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>月份工业产值同比增速放缓<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>现货方面：上海现货市场报价稳中有跌，<SPAN lang=EN-US>0#</SPAN>锌报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>17400-17500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，保持平稳；<SPAN lang=EN-US>A00</SPAN>铝在<SPAN lang=EN-US>15270-15310</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。上游厂商出货意愿较强，下游用户接货意愿较低，市场成交清淡。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>库存方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>锌库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>619050</SPAN>吨，较上交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>525</SPAN>吨，上海交易所锌期货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>123128</SPAN>吨，较上交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>25</SPAN>吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>铝库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>4401525</SPAN>吨，较上交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>950</SPAN>吨，上海交易所铝期货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>358658</SPAN>吨，增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>573</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>观点总结：市场基本面偏空，但资金数据表明市场多头资金尚未撤退，建议投资者谨慎操作，短线选择日内交易或观望。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">2<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">铜<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘：隔夜伦铜受益于美元暴跌探底回升，于<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>日均线处继续震荡整理，最后仅跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.34%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>7624</SPAN>，铜价逼近前期高点，短期内谨慎看多。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>月企业库存较前月增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>1%</SPAN>，预估为增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.5%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US>6</SPAN>月修正仍为增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.5%</SPAN>，前值为增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.3%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2. </SPAN>美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>月零售销售升幅高于预估且为五个月来最大升幅，主因加油站及服装商场销售强劲，这进一步缓和了二次衰退的忧虑。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货方面：上海现铜报<SPAN lang=EN-US>59300-59500</SPAN>元，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。，现货平水铜贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>，内外比价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.76-7.79<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存：<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>14</SPAN>日<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>铜库存增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>75</SPAN>吨至<SPAN lang=EN-US>390525</SPAN>吨，注销仓单占比为<SPAN lang=EN-US>5.84%</SPAN>，较昨日有所上升，据历史数据显示，注销仓单占比在<SPAN lang=EN-US>5%</SPAN>之下的话，伦铜库存增加的可能性较大，目前的水平表明库存还将有减少的空间。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：昨日伦铜在亚洲市因沪铜下跌而不断走低，最低触及<SPAN lang=EN-US>7535</SPAN>，于<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>日均线之下运行但晚间美国数据转好，使得美元暴跌，铜价因此自低位反弹益，不过近期沪铜在上涨过程中现货维持贴水和内外比价较低，均表明内盘无力跟涨，谨防价格出现回调，双节前，建议投资前等待机会做空，如价格有效跌破<SPAN lang=EN-US>59000</SPAN>，空仓小量介入。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">3<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">钢材<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>8mm Q235</SPAN>高线上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4420</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，持平，<SPAN lang=EN-US>20mm HRB400</SPAN>螺纹钢上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4480</SPAN>，持平<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US> (1) </SPAN>印度政府拒绝对铁矿石出口设限<SPAN lang=EN-US>(2) </SPAN>信贷审批或将再收紧 楼市回暖迫政策加码<SPAN lang=EN-US>(3) </SPAN>“限产令”引三大矿商恐慌业内料限产风暴前紧后松<SPAN lang=EN-US>(4) </SPAN>印度粉矿<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>14</SPAN>日<SPAN lang=EN-US>CIF</SPAN>参考报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>148-150</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存：上海交易所螺纹钢仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>44323</SPAN>，增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>3241</SPAN>。线材仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>609</SPAN>，持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">小结：周二<SPAN lang=EN-US>RB1101</SPAN>合约继续回落，虽然宝钢上调<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月份钢材出厂价，并将此前的系列优惠政策相应取消<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>但并未提振钢市。技术上<SPAN lang=EN-US>RSI</SPAN>及<SPAN lang=EN-US>KD</SPAN>方向仍向下，短线关注<SPAN lang=EN-US>4400</SPAN>及<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>日均线支撑力度。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 18pt; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 18.0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-list: Ignore">4<SPAN style="FONT: 7pt ''Times New Roman''"> </SPAN></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘：隔夜期金受益于美元走软，大幅上涨，创下年内新高，其中<SPAN lang=EN-US>COMEX12</SPAN>月期金收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>1271.7</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>盎司，近期季节性因素料对金价有所支撑，限制其回调空间。美元的下跌助涨黄金，而上涨对于黄金的压制作用不强。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>月企业库存较前月增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>1%</SPAN>，预估为增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.5%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US>6</SPAN>月修正仍为增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.5%</SPAN>，前值为增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.3%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2. </SPAN>美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>月零售销售升幅高于预估且为五个月来最大升幅，主因加油站及服装商场销售强劲，这进一步缓和了二次衰退的忧虑。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货方面：上海黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US>9999</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>275.8</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，上涨跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.99</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，涨幅为<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.47% <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：隔夜<SPAN lang=EN-US>COMEX</SPAN>期金一举突破近期震荡整理格局，强势上扬，并创下年内新高，因美元大幅下跌，昨日沪金低开后小幅震荡，但期价依旧处于上行通道，投资需求和印度对实物黄金需求增加始终有望支撑金价维持高点并不断上涨。目前价格创下新高，激进者可进入追多，止损于<SPAN lang=EN-US>275</SPAN>一线。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">化工品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">天然橡胶<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">9</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">月<SPAN lang=EN-US>14</SPAN>日，从加拿大向美国中西部输送原油的<SPAN lang=EN-US>Enbridge</SPAN>输油管将更快重新开通，纽约商业交易所<SPAN lang=EN-US>(NYMEX)</SPAN>原油期货走低。纽约商交所十月原油期货结算价跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>39</SPAN>美分，至每桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>76.80</SPAN>美元，跌幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.5%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">东京橡胶期货<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>14</SPAN>日维持窄幅震荡，虽然国际油价走高职称市场，但是日圆兑美元也同步升值新高，打压市场，基准<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月合约报收<SPAN lang=EN-US>294.8</SPAN>日圆<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>千克，持平。今早开盘<SPAN lang=EN-US>294.6</SPAN>日圆<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>千克。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1.<SPAN style="mso-tab-count: 1"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">印度<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010/11</SPAN>财年天然橡胶进口量料逾<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">2.<SPAN style="mso-tab-count: 1"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">中橡协建议国家储备局再次抛储<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">期货方面：上海期货交易场期货库存<SPAN lang=EN-US>15860</SPAN>吨，增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>2610</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">上海期货交易所<SPAN lang=EN-US>RU1103</SPAN>成交及持仓前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>总排名，持买单总计<SPAN lang=EN-US>59945</SPAN>手，增持<SPAN lang=EN-US>4367</SPAN>手；持卖单总计<SPAN lang=EN-US>41220</SPAN>手，减持<SPAN lang=EN-US>195</SPAN>手<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">国内天然橡胶市场，国产标一市场主流报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>26000-26300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨之间；泰国<SPAN lang=EN-US>3#</SPAN>烟片胶市场资源紧俏，报<SPAN lang=EN-US>26300-26500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，（无票）；越南芒街<SPAN lang=EN-US>3L</SPAN>参考报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>25800-26000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨（<SPAN lang=EN-US>13%</SPAN>票），越南芒街再现封关传闻，部分下游厂家看现货市场回调无望，在自身库存偏低情况下，存在买入行为。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">但即“大地”资金被查传闻之后，在现货期货持续高位情况下，近期中橡协会有建议国家储备局再次竞拍储胶，因为根据上半年统计，生产企业的产成本费用同比上升约<SPAN lang=EN-US>30%</SPAN>，交易已明显下滑，亏损企业增加，希望通过拿出储备橡胶竞拍，以歇制市场上天胶上扬的势头，缓解企业困难。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：天然橡胶基本面市场价高持稳，但期货市场自“大地”传闻之后，多头气氛被打乱，而近期又传“抛储”建议，增添空头支撑，因此建议投资者仍持中线背靠<SPAN lang=EN-US>25800-26100</SPAN>区间内逢高沽空思路，短线节前以日内操作为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>2<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>PTA<BR> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>NYMEX</SPAN>原油小幅回落，因市场预期美加两国输油管线将很快重启。<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月原油期货收低<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.39</SPAN>美元，报每桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>76.80</SPAN>美元。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、印度三菱化学产能<SPAN lang=EN-US>80</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>年的<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>装置，于<SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>日因反应器故障意外停车，目前装置仍在检修中，按计划该装置将于<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>23</SPAN>日左右重启。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、南韩<SPAN lang=EN-US>KP</SPAN>化学计划于上周末对产能<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>年的<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>装置进行例行停车检修，此次检修为期<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>天左右，另外公司计划于<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月份对其产能<SPAN lang=EN-US>35</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>年的<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>号<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>装置停车检修<SPAN lang=EN-US>6</SPAN>天。<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>、江浙涤纶长丝市场整体表现良好，报价多有工厂适幅调涨，其中<SPAN lang=EN-US>FDY</SPAN>偏粗规格涨幅在<SPAN lang=EN-US>50-100</SPAN>，部分工厂偏细旦及有光丝也有<SPAN lang=EN-US>50-100</SPAN>的调涨，<SPAN lang=EN-US>DTY</SPAN>稳中有涨一百。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货价格：华东<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>市场行情趋稳，市场卖方报盘维持在<SPAN lang=EN-US>7500-7550</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近；买方询盘气氛较为积极，实际成交在<SPAN lang=EN-US>7500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近，市场交易气氛良好。亚洲<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>现货市场行情趋稳，台产货报盘在<SPAN lang=EN-US>915</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，持货方低价惜售，商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>910-915</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨之间展开，韩产现货报价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>900</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨左右，商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>895</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近进行。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存数据：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>15628</SPAN>张，较上一交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>384</SPAN>张，有效预报<SPAN lang=EN-US>4796</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：目前下游聚酯整体需求较前期有明显改善，涤纶产品价格开始回升，支撑<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>现货价格走稳。但随着扬子石化、翔鹭石化等<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>生产企业检修结束投入生产，市场供给也将再度上升；整体上<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>维持震荡格局。<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA1101</SPAN>合约小幅回落，期价继续考验<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>日线支撑，短线维持在<SPAN lang=EN-US>7800-8000</SPAN>区间波动。操作上，暂时区间交易，低位短多介入。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">3<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">燃料油<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">9</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">月<SPAN lang=EN-US>14</SPAN>日，从加拿大向美国中西部输送原油的<SPAN lang=EN-US>Enbridge</SPAN>输油管将更快重新开通，纽约商业交易所<SPAN lang=EN-US>(NYMEX)</SPAN>原油期货走低。纽约商交所十月原油期货结算价跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>39</SPAN>美分，至每桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>76.80</SPAN>美元，跌幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.5%<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">l<SPAN style="mso-tab-count: 1"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">欧洲经济研究中心<SPAN lang=EN-US>(ZEW)14</SPAN>日发布的调查报告显示，<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月份的德国经济预期指数降至<SPAN lang=EN-US>-4.3</SPAN>，<SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>月份为<SPAN lang=EN-US>14.0<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">l<SPAN style="mso-tab-count: 1"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">美国石油协会<SPAN lang=EN-US>(API)</SPAN>发布库存报告称，最近一周原油库存增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>330</SPAN>万桶，汽油库存减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>96.3</SPAN>万桶，馏分油库存减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>150</SPAN>万桶<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">期货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">上期所库存<SPAN lang=EN-US>225200</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">混调油方面，<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月总体来说需求比<SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>月有所好转，但是在长假之前，买家购货积极性并不大。现货市场缺乏需求支撑，各商家报价多数稳。船用混调<SPAN lang=EN-US>180</SPAN>交易过驳价至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4380-4390</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；库提价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4390-4400</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，均价持平，国产锅炉用混调<SPAN lang=EN-US>180CST</SPAN>交易价至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4180-4230</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，均价上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：国际油价短期受飓风以及库存报告数据利好推高，但燃油自身条件有限，建议投资者<SPAN lang=EN-US>4400</SPAN>上方空单谨慎持有，临近<SPAN lang=EN-US>4250-4300</SPAN>区域内逢低减持。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">4<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>PVC<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、南京三银行叫停曲线房贷 停止现有房子抵押买房；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、新疆天业签订<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>亿协议发展煤炭电石工业盐等项目<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>现货市场价格稳中有涨，上海申峰<SPAN lang=EN-US>WS1000</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>7550</SPAN>元（周边送到价），与昨日持平。河南宇航<SPAN lang=EN-US>SG3-5</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>7650</SPAN>元（当地出厂价），较上一交易日上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>元。生产企业控制出货。电石价格则稳步上涨。西北报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3200</SPAN>—<SPAN lang=EN-US>3370</SPAN>，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>70</SPAN>元，华东电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3650</SPAN>—<SPAN lang=EN-US>3700</SPAN>，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>元。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存仓单：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>6108</SPAN>张，较上一交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>38</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：昨日<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>依托五日均线支撑窄幅震荡，成交量则成倍萎缩，显示多空分岐仍较明显。上游原料及现货价格稳中有涨、下半年节能减排任务较重，将影响<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>的供应量，均对<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>形成一定的支撑。预计后市<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>仍有望震荡上行。操作上，投资者手中多单可继续谨慎持有。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">5<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">连塑<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、南塑<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>亿条塑编袋项目投产；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、联想布局山东拟建百万吨烯烃工程；<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、塑料管道行业国际竞争实力不断增强。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货市场：扬子石化<SPAN lang=EN-US>DFDA-7042</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>9950</SPAN>元，与昨日持平。各地现货市场交易仍较清淡，企业多处观望中。<SPAN lang=EN-US>CFR</SPAN>东北亚乙烯报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1040-1042</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，东南亚乙烯报<SPAN lang=EN-US>980</SPAN>—<SPAN lang=EN-US>982</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，均上一交易日持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">库存仓单：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>18617</SPAN>张，较上一交易日增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>55</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：昨日连塑反弹无力，盘中价格冲高回落，成交量也小幅上升，显示多空分岐仍较严重。基本面上：原油连续反弹，亚洲乙烯价格坚挺，华北农膜旺季到来对连塑有一定的支撑。但交易所仓单平稳上升，现货市场成交不活跃也对其形成压制。预计短期连塑仍将维持区间震荡格局。操作上，建议手中多单以<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日均线为止损位，谨慎持有。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">宏观股指<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">外盘指数<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-tab-count: 3"> </SPAN></SPAN>收盘<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-tab-count: 2"> </SPAN></SPAN>涨跌<SPAN lang=EN-US> <SPAN style="mso-tab-count: 1"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">道琼斯指数<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>10526.49<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>-17.64<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>-0.17%<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">纳斯达克指数<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>2289.77<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>4.06<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>0.18% <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">标普<SPAN lang=EN-US>500</SPAN>指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> <SPAN style="mso-tab-count: 1"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>1121.10 <SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>-0.80<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>-0.07%<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><A href="http://stock.eastmoney.com/GlobalIndex/FTSE.html" target=_blank><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: windowtext; TEXT-DECORATION: none; text-underline: none"><SPAN lang=EN-US>富时100</SPAN></SPAN></A></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">指数<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>5567.41<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>1.88<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>0.03%<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><A href="http://stock.eastmoney.com/GlobalIndex/GDAXI.html" target=_blank><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: windowtext; TEXT-DECORATION: none; text-underline: none"><SPAN lang=EN-US>德国DAX</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: windowtext; TEXT-DECORATION: none; text-underline: none"><SPAN lang=EN-US>指数</SPAN></SPAN></A><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>6275.41<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>13.73<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>0.22%<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><A href="http://stock.eastmoney.com/GlobalIndex/FCHI.html" target=_blank><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: windowtext; TEXT-DECORATION: none; text-underline: none"><SPAN lang=EN-US>法国CAC40</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: windowtext; TEXT-DECORATION: none; text-underline: none"><SPAN lang=EN-US>指数</SPAN></SPAN></A><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3774.40<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>7.25 <SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>0.19%<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">C0MEX<A href="http://finance.sina.com.cn/money/future/quote_hf.html?GC" target=_blank><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: windowtext; TEXT-DECORATION: none; text-underline: none"><SPAN lang=EN-US>黄金</SPAN></SPAN></A><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>1252.5<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>5.1<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>0.41%<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">NYMEX</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">原油<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>79.23<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>0.19<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>0.24%<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">美元指数<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>81.84<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>-0.11<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>-0.13%<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 18pt; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; tab-stops: list 18.0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-list: Ignore">1．<SPAN style="FONT: 7pt ''Times New Roman''"> </SPAN></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">发改委：<SPAN lang=EN-US>CPI</SPAN>涨幅可控<SPAN lang=EN-US>3%</SPAN>，粮食市场不会大幅波动</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">；<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 18pt; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; tab-stops: list 18.0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-list: Ignore">2．<SPAN style="FONT: 7pt ''Times New Roman''"> </SPAN></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">人民币中间价连续三日创新高</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">；<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 18pt; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; tab-stops: list 18.0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-list: Ignore">3．<SPAN style="FONT: 7pt ''Times New Roman''"> </SPAN></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">美 <SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>月零售额增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.4%</SPAN>，略高于预期；<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>月商业库存环比增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>1%</SPAN>，近两年的最大增幅；<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 18pt; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; tab-stops: list 18.0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-list: Ignore">4．<SPAN style="FONT: 7pt ''Times New Roman''"> </SPAN></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">德商业信心指数骤降，欧股涨跌互见；<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">持仓分析：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 20.8pt; mso-char-indent-count: 1.98"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">周二中金所前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>名多方持多单</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">12649</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">，减少</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">3056</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">手；空方持仓</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">13291</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">手，减仓</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">3907</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">手，净空持仓</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">642</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">手，</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">整体格局空方仍占优。前五名主力机构持多</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">5655</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">，日内减仓</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1775</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">；空方持空单</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">7791</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">，日内减仓</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">2253</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">，净多持仓</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">2136</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">手，空方占优较明显。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 20.8pt; mso-char-indent-count: 1.98"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">从持仓结构来看，多空双方均大幅减仓，表明随着主力合约周五到期交割，双方趋于冷静、谨慎，本期双方“恩怨”随合约到期而告终或转移。从整体来看，持仓动向体现了主力合约到期和移仓换月的特征，此时多空双方关注重点转向如何有效地平仓。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">瑞达研究院观点：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">沪深<SPAN lang=EN-US>300</SPAN>指数：</SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">周二上在上证指数上攻半年线未果的情况下冲高回落，成交量较昨日基本持平，市场表现全日较为平静。</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">在地方融资平台问题尚未厘清、房地产调控政策延续的背景下，其向上亦缺乏明显动力，这也是制约股指向上突破的主要原因。因此，在政策面没有明显松动之时，市场或将延续横盘行情</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">，</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">今日股指压力仍在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3000</SPAN>点，支撑在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2950</SPAN>点。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">IF1009:</SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">主力合约今日将大幅移至<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1010</SPAN>合约，套利套保客户注意及时平仓，同时</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">鉴于上证指数或再上攻半年线，<SPAN lang=EN-US>IF1009</SPAN>合约创近期新高的可能性相当大，压力在<SPAN lang=EN-US>3000</SPAN>点，支撑在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2950</SPAN>点。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">『免责声明：期市瞬息万变，盘中突发消息也将影响
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