<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 2em"><FONT style="FONT-SIZE: 16px"><FONT style="FONT-SIZE: 16px"><FONT style="FONT-SIZE: 16px"><FONT style="FONT-SIZE: 16px"><FONT style="FONT-SIZE: 16px"><FONT style="FONT-SIZE: 16px"><FONT style="FONT-SIZE: 16px"><FONT style="FONT-SIZE: 16px"><FONT style="FONT-SIZE: 16px"><FONT style="FONT-SIZE: 16px"><FONT size=3> <WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><FONT style="FONT-SIZE: 16px">1、大势</FONT></FONT><FONT size=3><FONT size=3><FONT size=+0><FONT size=+0><FONT style="FONT-SIZE: 16px"><FONT size=+0><FONT size=+0><FONT size=+0><FONT size=+0><FONT size=+0><FONT size=+0> <WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR> <WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT size=+0><FONT size=+0><FONT size=+0><FONT size=+0><FONT size=+0><FONT size=+0><FONT size=+0><FONT size=+0> <WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></P>
<P><FONT style="FONT-SIZE: 16px"><FONT style="FONT-SIZE: 16px"> <WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><FONT style="FONT-SIZE: 16px"> <WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR> <WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR> <FONT style="FONT-SIZE: 16px"><FONT style="FONT-SIZE: 16px"><FONT style="FONT-SIZE: 16px"><FONT style="FONT-SIZE: 16px"><FONT style="FONT-SIZE: 16px">周五沪深股指借利空传言被否和美股小幅上涨的刺激，向上弱势反弹，之后因恐慌盘涌出展开新一轮杀跌，沪指跌破20日线，最低在2628点企稳，深成指跌破10日线，在20日线获支撑，午后翻红，沪指收涨0.26％，深成指收涨0.57％，依然强于沪指。两市分别成交1355和1231亿元，较周四萎缩了14％和13％。中小板指的表现依然最为强势，直接将周四的阴线全部收复，收盘在全天最高，涨幅为1.53％；创业板指收涨1.28％。消息面依然偏空，周六即将公布8月宏观数据，经济学家预测CPI可能升至3.4％，加息传闻甚嚣尘上，中国楼市调控或迎来重磅炸弹，目前政策层面的不确定性风险已经成为行情最大的矛盾焦点；上市公司高管净减持股票单周超过1亿元，投资中国A股的QFII基金股票仓位从上期的89.56%大幅缩水至本期的74.86%，减少了14.7个百分点，都对目前行情也有一定的警示作用。另外，下周初资金面相对紧张，周一有3只创业板新股发行，周二是12.5亿股的宁波港网上发行，周三还有3只创业板新股发行，估计周初仍难以走强。</FONT><FONT style="FONT-SIZE: 16px"><BR></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></P>
<P><FONT style="FONT-SIZE: 16px"><FONT style="FONT-SIZE: 16px"><FONT style="FONT-SIZE: 16px"> <WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR> <WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR> <WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR> 技术上：周五沪深股指双双以长下影的小阳线报收，显示下方有一定的支撑，不过阳线实体太小，且成交量萎缩，不排除下跌抵抗的可能。从周线来看，沪深股指均以创新高的阴十字星报收，显示多空争夺加剧。值得注意的是，KDJ指标出现了顶背离，未随股指同步创出新高，应警惕短线继续回调。从日K线图形来看，前期我们曾提示行情可能是一个小的菱形震荡，本周突破右上轨之后，似向一个上升的旗形转变。目前来看，旗形下轨（8月13日2564点和8月27日2588点的连线）位于2610点，周五沪指在其上企稳，显示该下轨有一定的支撑作用。不过，一般而言，上升的旗形是要向下突破的，因此，后市须密切关注该下轨的支撑，应注意适当控制持仓。</FONT></FONT></FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=3><FONT style="FONT-SIZE: 16px"> <WBR> <WBR> 总体看在流动性依然不十分充裕及政策调控经济转型的大背景下，大盘指数难有作为，也就是说带权重的指标股中线上不会有太突出表现，金融板块几乎接近<SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">2300</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times new roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times new roman''">点位置而中小板部分个股陆续突破6000点水平成为常态，市场中</SPAN></FONT><FONT style="FONT-SIZE: 16px"><FONT style="FONT-SIZE: 16px"><FONT style="FONT-SIZE: 16px"><FONT style="FONT-SIZE: 16px"><FONT style="FONT-SIZE: 16px"><FONT style="FONT-SIZE: 16px"><FONT style="FONT-SIZE: 16px"><FONT style="FONT-SIZE: 16px"><FONT style="FONT-SIZE: 16px"><FONT style="FONT-SIZE: 16px">静态市盈率12倍以下的个股比静态PE50倍以上的股更危险，这是制度变迁所致，投资者只能适应。但短期题材股的恶炒也开始受制，首先来自壹桥苗业、棕榈园林等庄股的放量连续下跌，周五稀土锂电板块也开始的退潮。鉴于监管层加大了小盘股限制买入措施的实施范围，加之关于“用法律手段制裁操纵市场行为”的传闻，导致周四一大批小盘股的跳水，大盘指数也出现了下挫。周五成飞集成的跌停以及下周可能出现的类似壹桥苗业的走势，对锂电板块的震慑力不可低估。因此短期市场筹码有所松动的背景下仓位要有所控制。不过长期看中小板个股中一部分品种在市场这波调整后依然会走强，这同样也是制度变迁所致。<WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR> <WBR></FONT><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR> <WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></P>
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<P><FONT style="FONT-SIZE: 16px"> <WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR> <WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR> <WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR></FONT></P>
<P><FONT style="FONT-SIZE: 16px"> <WBR> <WBR> <WBR> <WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR>2、热点</FONT></P>
<P><FONT style="FONT-SIZE: 16px"><FONT style="FONT-SIZE: 16px"><FONT style="FONT-SIZE: 16px"><FONT style="FONT-SIZE: 16px"><FONT style="FONT-SIZE: 16px"> <WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR> <WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR> <WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR> <WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR><WBR>受内蒙古振兴规划出台的预期影响，内蒙古板块领涨大盘。市场传闻扩大房产税征收范围，房地产板块走势领跌大盘。受蜱虫致病及传播信息扩散，A股市场对于农药类个股大肆追捧，部分个股在周四已经被大幅炒高的基础上再次爆炒，利尔化学、华阳科技相关人士表示，毒死蜱并不是专杀蜱虫的农药，而该名字也只是通过其英文名称而翻译过来的，料后市将“纠正”错误。这一现象说明市场之浮躁，下跌调整其实是必然。</FONT><BR></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></P></DIV></DIV>
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