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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">[</FONT></SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">全球主要股指</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">]<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 10.7pt; TEXT-INDENT: -0.2pt; mso-para-margin-left: 1.0gd; mso-char-indent-count: -.02"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">9</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">7</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日收盘：上证指数</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2698.36</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.08%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；沪深</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">300</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">指数</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2983.11</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.27%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；中小板指</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">6218.35</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.36%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；恒生指数</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">20355.77 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.83%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；德</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">DAX 6117.89</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.60%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；道琼工业</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman"> 1034069 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.03%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；纳斯达克</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman"> 2208.89</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.11%</FONT></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">[</FONT></SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">瑞达国内宏观观点</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">]<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1. </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">工信部运行监测协调局周二表示，受基期因素影响，今年下半年工业增速预计将会降到<SPAN lang=EN-US>10%</SPAN>左右，但全年仍可达<SPAN lang=EN-US>13%</SPAN>左右。由于能源原材料价格快速上涨，用工成本较快增加，中小企业反映融资难的呼声增加，以及对出口环境不稳的担心增强，目前企业生产经营难度有所增加。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">2. </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">工信部指出，需加快淘汰落后产能和大力推进工业节能减排，促进循环经济发展。并具体指出，钢铁、水泥、煤化工、平板玻璃等部分传统行业重复建设、恶性竞争严重，产能过剩问题突出，落后产能还占相当比重；另外，风电设备、多晶硅等新兴产业也有盲目建设的苗头。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">3. 8</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">月四大国有商业银行新增人民币贷款<SPAN lang=EN-US>2,188</SPAN>亿元人民币，较上月的新增<SPAN lang=EN-US>2,430</SPAN>亿元略有回落，基本符合货币和监管当局的均衡投放预期。不过，<SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>月新增贷款规模高于去年同期水准，且各家银行通过票据贴现来调剂规模的做法大为收敛。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">4. </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">中国指数研究院周二公布数据显示，上周</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">(8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">30</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">-9</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">)</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">多数城市成交面积环比继续上涨，过半数城市价格环比下跌。同期，土地推出量及成交量均下跌。</SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">5. 2010</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">中国进口</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">论坛上获悉中国已成为世界第二大进口国。今后中国将在优化进口结构、推动进口便利、完善促进体系等三个方面，采取八项措施，鼓励扩大进口，促进贸易平衡。目前，中国进口关税总水平已降至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">9.8%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，远低于发展中国家</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">46.6%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">的平均关税水平。</SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">6. </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">联合国贸易和发展会议<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>日在厦门发布《<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010—2012</SPAN>年世界投资前景调查报告》，指出中国成为<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010</SPAN>年至<SPAN lang=EN-US>2012</SPAN>年全球第二大最具潜力的对外投资国。对外投资将由点式投资、散型投资发展到集约式投资和产业链投资。今年上半年中国吸收外资的增幅为<SPAN lang=EN-US>19.9%</SPAN>，而对外投资到<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>月份增幅达<SPAN lang=EN-US>43.9%</SPAN>，这一速度远远超过各国。中国经济总体上已经到了对外投资大规模增长的阶段，目前对外投资和吸收投资<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>：<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>的比重可望在不远的将来升至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>的水平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 10.95pt; TEXT-INDENT: -10.95pt; mso-char-indent-count: -1.04"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">[</FONT></SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">瑞达国际宏观观点</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">]<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></B></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1. </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美国</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">9</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日的贴现率会议纪要显示，整体而言，地方联邦储备银行的理事们预计近期经济仅会呈现温和扩张。</SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2. </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">德国</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">7</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月未季调制造业订单环比降低</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2.2%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，其中海外订单显著下降。我们认为德国经济在今年上半年的强劲增长后，在全球经济放缓的情况下德国经济复苏势头在放缓。</SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">3. </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日本央行利率决议隔夜拆款利率维持在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.1%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">的水平不变。我们认为日本央行面临困境：面对日元升值压力，隔夜拆款利率却已经低的无法再降；上周的进一步扩大贷款发放也没有起到预期效果。</SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">4</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">．</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-tab-count: 1"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">澳洲联储利率决议隔夜拆款利率目标维持在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">4.50%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">不变。我们认为澳洲经济形势良好，但由于一些国外的不确定因素，澳洲联储推迟加息行动。</SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">今日关注重点：美联储褐皮书；加拿大央行公布利率决议；德国</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">7</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月工业产出；英国</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">7</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月工业产出；日本</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">7</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月核心机械订单</SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 10.95pt; TEXT-INDENT: -10.95pt; mso-char-indent-count: -1.04"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">[</FONT></SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">观点总结</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">]<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></B></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">国内股市方面，沪综指周二微幅收升，并刷新近四个月收盘高点，虽然金融股出现回调，令大盘</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2,700</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">点整数关口得而复失，但钢铁类股受唐山等地钢企限产或刺激钢价消息提振走高。而在宏观数据出炉前市场趋向谨慎，预计本周股指震荡上行的可能性较大。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">国外方面，欧元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美元（利好）；美元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日元（利好）；美指（利空）；德国国债收益率（利空）；美国国债收益率（利空）；日本国债收益率（利空）；</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">LIBOR</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">隔夜（利空）；</SPA
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