<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">[</FONT></SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">全球主要股指</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">]<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 10.7pt; TEXT-INDENT: -0.2pt; mso-para-margin-left: 1.0gd; mso-char-indent-count: -.02"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">9</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">6</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日收盘：上证指数</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2696.25</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.54%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；沪深</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">300</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">指数</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2975.09</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.88%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；中小板指</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">6196.02</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.32%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；恒生指数</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">20355.77 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.83%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；德</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">DAX 6155.04 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.33%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；道琼工业</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman"> -.- </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">-.-%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；纳斯达克</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman"> -.- </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">-.-%</FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">[</FONT></SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">瑞达国内宏观观点</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">]<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1. </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">央行研究局称人民币升值节奏和幅度主要取决于美元，</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">由于美元在人民币汇率篮子的权重占绝对优势，人民币对主要货币的升值节奏和幅度除取决于自身国际收支顺差状况外，仍将主要取决于美元走势。人民币与美元间的套利交易压力依然存在，对美元等主要货币总体上仍存在一定升值压力。</SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">2. </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">央行研究局</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">认为，随着经济形势变化各项政策可能有所调整，积极财政政策将再度回归，重点在于优化投资结构，货币政策将继续向银行间市场放松流动性，下半年有可能继续对部分融资平台发放贷款。且认为当前宏观经济中面临的两难问题增多，预计第三季度为政策真空期，不会出台实质性的调控措施，而主要依靠灵活的公开市场操作，保持市场流动性和信贷增长合理适度。此外，差别化房贷政策的实施将更加注重市场手段，而不是简单限制二套房贷款。地方融资平台方面，项目贷款可能逐渐向优质融资平台集中。</SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">3.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">中国国务院周一表示，以汽车、钢铁、水泥、机械制造、电解铝、稀土等行业为重点，推动优势企业实施强强联合、跨地区兼并重组、境外并购和投资合作，促进规模化、集约化经营。我们认为，对以上行业的融资支持将增大，下半年信贷将往这些行业倾斜。</SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">4. <B><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></B></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">国家统计局</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">9</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">6</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日公布数据显示，与</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月中旬相比，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月下旬国内</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">50</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">个城市鸡蛋价格继续明显上涨，蔬菜价格也多数上涨较大。期内散装鲜鸡蛋涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2.7%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">至每千克</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">9.48</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">元。肉禽鱼、食用油与粮食价格涨幅相对有限。预计</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月在食品价格指数上涨的带动下，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">CPI</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">将创年内新高。</SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">5.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">商务部称今年利用外资或首破千亿美元，中国投资环境并未恶化。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 10.95pt; TEXT-INDENT: -10.95pt; mso-char-indent-count: -1.04"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">[</FONT></SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">瑞达国际宏观观点</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">]<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1. </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">昨日新闻显示奥巴马本周将提议</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1000</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">亿美元企业税收抵免。我们认为该举措将扶持企业投资增长，有利于推动经济复苏。</SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2. </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">欧元区</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">9</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">Sentix</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">投资者信心指数下滑至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">7,6</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，低于预估中值</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">8.0</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">。我们认为，该指数在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月意外大幅跳增至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">8.5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">之后，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">9</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月略有降低，虽体现投资者对欧元区经济的未来乐观度有所下降，但欧元区经济持续复苏势头不变。</SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">3. </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">受欧洲主权债券市场动荡不安影影响，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2010</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">年第二季度国际市场债券发行规模大幅下降</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">23%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">。</SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">今日关注重点：德国</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">7</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月未季调制造业订单；日本央行利率决议；澳洲联储利率决议</SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 10.95pt; TEXT-INDENT: -10.95pt; mso-char-indent-count: -1.04"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">[</FONT></SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">观点总结</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">]<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">国内股市方面，沪综指周一收高逾</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.5%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，创近四个月来收盘新高，成交额亦创近五个月新高。如锂电池、农业等前期涨幅较大的中小市值板块出现回落，但蓝筹股集中的金融地产等板块，则在前期回调后开始反弹。短期沪综指或有望站上</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2,700</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">点，预计本周股指震荡上行的可能性较大。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">国外方面，欧元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美元（利空）；美元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日元（利好）；美指（利好）；德国国债收益率（利空）；美国国债收益率（中性）；日本国债收益率（利空）；</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">LIBOR</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times N
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