<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">[</FONT></SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">全球主要股指</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">]<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 10.7pt; TEXT-INDENT: -0.2pt; mso-char-indent-count: -.02; mso-para-margin-left: 1.0gd"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">9</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日收盘：上证指数</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2622.88</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.60%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；沪深</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">300</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">指数</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2884.04</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.66%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；中小板指</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">6124.55</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.94%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；恒生指数</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">20623.83 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.43%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；德</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">DAX 6083.90 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2.68%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；道琼工业</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> 10269.47 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2.54%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；纳斯达克</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> 2176.84 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2.97%<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">[</FONT></SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">瑞达国内宏观观点</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">]<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1. 8</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">月官方<SPAN lang=EN-US>PMI</SPAN>反弹至<SPAN lang=EN-US>51.7%</SPAN>，汇丰<SPAN lang=EN-US>PMI</SPAN>创三个月新高<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月官方公布的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">PMI</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">比上月上升</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">个百分点达到</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">51.7%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，是政府推出房地产调控政策后该指数连续</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">4</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">个月走低后的首次回升。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">PMI</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">的小幅回升似乎预示经济增速回落的势头得到一定程度缓解，但尚未有充足证据显示经济再次复苏。相对去年而言，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">PMI</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">仍处低位，预计近期维持温和波动的可能性较大，普遍认为下半年</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">PMI</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">将维持在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">50%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">的经济扩张分界线以上。同日公布的汇丰</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">PMI</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">指数终结此前四个月的下降，较</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">7</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">49.4</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">劲升</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2.5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">个百分点至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">51.9%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>PMI</FONT></SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">分项指数价格购进指数升幅高达</SPAN></B><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">10.1</FONT></SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">个百分点</SPAN></B><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">究其原因，其大幅增加主要是由于上游矿产、有色钢铁等价格上涨所带动，不仅说明目前企业成本遭受较大压力，从另一个方面也预示</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月的出厂价格指数</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">PPI</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">很可能会出现止跌反弹。此外，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月农产品价格、粮食价格和猪肉价格的涨幅很可能会高于历史平均水平，因此</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">CPI</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">涨幅超过上月的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">3.3%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">的可能性很大。政府将面临更大的通胀压力。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">3.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></FONT></SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">预计</SPAN></B><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">8</FONT></SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月贸易顺差维持高位</SPAN></B><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">对工业影响较大的生产指数升幅未超过</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">个百分点，说明</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月的工业增加值同比增幅很可能会再次小幅下滑。新出口订单指数升幅超过</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">个百分点预示我国出口情况良好，而进口指数回落幅度在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">个百分点内又说明进口刺激尚未见效，本月出口大于进口的状况将会继续，贸易顺差虽不太可能再创新高，但较大的贸易顺差将使人民币面临更大的升值压力，达到平衡贸易的目标任重道远。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">4.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></FONT></SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">住建部官员：近期出台新的全国性调控政策可能性不大</SPAN></B><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> <o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">证券时报周三援引住建部官员的话称，下一步工作的重点是对新“国十条”政策的严格落实执行和细化。推进房产税改革是一项长期的制度安排，不是降房价的手段，即使出台也是个别城市先试点。另外，土地方面也不会有新的政策出台，仍以继续加大保障房供地、清理闲置土地和完善土地招拍挂制度为重点。该官员同时称，监管预收款和限制开发贷款等政策应由银监会和地方政府来操作。在传统的“金九银十”来临之际，全国不少城市的房地产市场近期呈现量价齐升的态势，少数城市房价上涨幅度仍然较大，尤其是一些二三线城市房价出现了较快上涨。在此背景下住建部官员的讲话值得深思。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">5.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></FONT></SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">农业部：前</SPAN></B><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">7</FONT></SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月玉米进口猛增</SPAN></B><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">67</FONT></SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">倍</SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">农产品贸易逆差扩大</SPAN></B><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">6</FONT></SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">成</SPAN></B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">农业部数据显示，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1~7</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月，我国累计农产品进出口总额为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">653.1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">亿美元，同比增</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">29.1%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">。其中，出口</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">261.3</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">亿美元，增</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">22.9%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；进口</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">391.8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">亿美元，增</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">33.6%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；贸易逆差</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">130.5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">亿美元，扩大</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">61.9%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">。分品种看，进口增长最明显的是谷物和棉花。造成此局面的主要原因是今年国内灾情频繁，出现减产迹象，同时国内粮价上涨，进口差价较大。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 9.4pt; TEXT-INDENT: -9.4pt; mso-char-indent-count: -1.04"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">[</FONT></SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">瑞达国际宏观观点</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">]<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></B></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1. </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美国</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">7</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月份建筑支出降至十年低点。政府撤销扶持，房地产业承压。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2. ADP</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">：美国</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月私营部门就业人数减</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">万人，预期增加</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.7</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">万人。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月份私营部门在裁员，仅大公司在招聘。中小企业复苏进程放缓。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">3. </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">昨日奥巴马正式宣布美军结束在伊作战，复苏美国经济是政府的关注重心。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">4. 8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月份美国制造业采购经理人指数</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">(PMI)</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">由</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">7</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月份的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">55.5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">上升至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">56.3</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月份制造业活动出人意料地出现反弹，为连续第</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">13</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">个月处于扩张状态。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> <SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">．英国</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月份制造业</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">PMI</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">降至九个月低点</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">54.3</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">季度的强劲扩张势头恐未能延续。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">今日关注重点：英国</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">Nationwide</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">房价指数；欧元区第二季度</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">GDP</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">修正值；欧洲央行利率决议；美国</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">28</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日当周初请失业金人数；美国</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">7</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">NAR</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">季调后成屋签约销售指数；美国</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">7</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月工厂订单</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 9.4pt; TEXT-INDENT: -9.4pt; mso-char-indent-count: -1.04"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">[</FONT></SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">观点总结</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">]<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">国内股市方面，沪综指周三收跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black"><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.6%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，早间公布的中国</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black"><FONT face="Times New Roman">PMI</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">指数虽然温和反弹，但料难持续回升，国内外经济前景不容乐观，投资者信心未见明显改善，</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">预计突破前期</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2680</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">点仍有难度，<SPAN style="COLOR: black">上证综指在短期内料维持横盘向上整理格局</SPAN>。此外，由于美国公布的制造业数据好于预期致使昨晚美股普涨且三大股指涨幅均超过</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2.5%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，因而沪综指<SPAN style="COLOR: black">周四有望高开收阳。</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">国外方面，欧元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美元（利空）；美元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日元（利好）；美指（利好）；德国国债收益率（利空）；美国国债收益率（利空）；日本国债收益率（中性）；</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">LIBOR</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-S ddddddddddddddddddddddddd
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