<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">农产品</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘走势：<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>棉花期货收于两年半高位，经纪商称投资者买盘粉碎了棉花即将调整的看法。<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月棉花合约上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.21</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>收报每磅<SPAN lang=EN-US>87.41</SPAN>美分。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 1</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>日储备棉投放数量为<SPAN lang=EN-US>15,082</SPAN>吨，全部成交；平均等级<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.76</SPAN>，较上一日高<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.15</SPAN>；平均长度<SPAN lang=EN-US>28.37</SPAN>，与上一日相比高<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.09</SPAN>；加权成交价<SPAN lang=EN-US>18,052</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较上一日涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>55</SPAN>元，折<SPAN lang=EN-US>328</SPAN>级成交价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>18,398</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨（净重），较上一日跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>39</SPAN>元。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 2</SPAN>、据美国农业部预测，今年澳大利亚单产将有望扭转去年的颓势，达到<SPAN lang=EN-US>128.3</SPAN>公斤<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>亩，澳大利亚的植棉面积有望增加。澳大利亚国家银行预计<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010/11</SPAN>年度的棉花产量为<SPAN lang=EN-US>52</SPAN>万吨，同比增长<SPAN lang=EN-US>43.8%</SPAN>，创近五年来的最高水平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> 3</SPAN>、印度商务部宣布，<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010/11</SPAN>年度印度政府将在首先保证国内用棉的基础上出口棉花，国内纺织厂无需担忧棉花供应紧张，这样做可以兼顾棉农和纺织业的利益。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货方面：棉花指数价格为<SPAN lang=EN-US>18002</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，较上一交易日下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单库存：交易所注册仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>234</SPAN>张，较上一交易日持平，有效预报<SPAN lang=EN-US>32</SPAN>张。（每张对应棉花<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>吨）。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> </SPAN>观点总结：隔夜<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>期棉继续收高；国内开始出现零星的新棉收购，湖北荆州籽棉收购价格<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.6-4.</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>斤；棉市维持利多氛围。郑棉<SPAN lang=EN-US>1101</SPAN>合约小幅收涨，期价维持在<SPAN lang=EN-US>17500</SPAN>关口波动，短线涨幅扩大，须警惕冲高回落，中线维持震荡上行走势。操作上，多头思路，逢低短多介入。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><BR>2<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">白糖<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>受美元走弱、投资者加大风险市场投资力度导致商品市场普涨的刺激，加上市场方面担心干旱天气会进一步冲击全球头<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>号产糖国<SPAN lang=EN-US>--</SPAN>巴西的甘蔗生产，在基金买盘的推动下，本周三<SPAN lang=EN-US>ICE</SPAN>糖市原糖期货价格冲击了近<SPAN lang=EN-US>6</SPAN>个月来的最高点。当日<SPAN lang=EN-US>1010 </SPAN>期约糖价暴涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>74</SPAN>个点（<SPAN lang=EN-US>+3.8%%</SPAN>），收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>20.49</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅，盘中<SPAN lang=EN-US>1010</SPAN>期约糖价的涨幅一度达到<SPAN lang=EN-US>4%</SPAN>，冲击了<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>日以来<SPAN lang=EN-US>20.54 </SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅的最高点；<SPAN lang=EN-US>1103</SPAN>期约糖价同时暴涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>64</SPAN>个点，收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>19.96</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>基本面消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>1</SPAN>、截至<SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>月底<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>广东销糖<SPAN lang=EN-US>83.77</SPAN>万吨<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR>2</SPAN>、印度：<SPAN lang=EN-US>10/11</SPAN>榨季预计将出口<SPAN lang=EN-US>150</SPAN>万－<SPAN lang=EN-US>200</SPAN>万吨糖<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>国内现货：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>国内现货小幅上调，南宁报<SPAN lang=EN-US>5590</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>库存仓单（张）：<SPAN lang=EN-US>14032</SPAN>，有效预报<SPAN lang=EN-US>196</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>国内主产区天气：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>今晚到明天，全区大部晴到多云，其中桂东南局部有阵雨。今天白天，全区大部最高气温<SPAN lang=EN-US>34-36℃</SPAN>。南宁市：今天白天<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>到晚上，多云到晴，东北风<SPAN lang=EN-US>1-2</SPAN>级，最高气温<SPAN lang=EN-US>35℃</SPAN>，最低气温<SPAN lang=EN-US>25℃</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>郑糖盘面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>技术上，郑糖<SPAN lang=EN-US>1105</SPAN>合约短期延续反弹，但滞涨迹象明显，<SPAN lang=EN-US>KDJ</SPAN>指标未及时跟上价格变化，警惕回落风险。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><BR>3 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">油脂：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘：原油上涨溢出支撑，美豆油小幅收高，主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>月豆油<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>合约收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>40.12</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>磅。因船货调查公司公布数据显示海外需求<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>疲弱后，投资者锁定获利，<SPAN lang=EN-US>BMD</SPAN>毛棕榈油出现逾<SPAN lang=EN-US>1%</SPAN>跌幅，主力<SPAN lang=EN-US>11 </SPAN>月合约下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>35</SPAN>令吉至<SPAN lang=EN-US>2535</SPAN>令吉<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息：国际方面，荷兰合作银行分析师表示，中国大豆进口<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>步伐可能从近期创纪录的水平上放慢，因为大豆进口成本提高，<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>致使中国国内油厂加工利润亏损，中国政府可能很快向国内市场<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>投放大豆库存。国内方面，湖南省秋冬油菜种植面积或达<SPAN lang=EN-US>1800</SPAN>万<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>亩，并大力推广湘杂油<SPAN lang=EN-US>753</SPAN>、湘杂油<SPAN lang=EN-US>188</SPAN>、中油杂<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>号、亚科<SPAN lang=EN-US>28</SPAN>等<SPAN lang=EN-US> 24</SPAN>个双低杂交油菜新品种，重点建设澧县、华容、衡阳等<SPAN lang=EN-US>44</SPAN>个油<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>菜生产示范片。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> </SPAN>现货：昨日油脂现货价格大致持稳，沿海四级豆油约为<SPAN lang=EN-US> 7650-7900</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；港口棕榈油报价集中在<SPAN lang=EN-US>7250-7500</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；国内<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>四级菜油出厂价格处于<SPAN lang=EN-US>8600-9000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨水平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>仓单：豆油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>5816</SPAN>张；棕榈油，<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>张；均无变化。菜油，<SPAN lang=EN-US> 5800</SPAN>张，较上一交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>150</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：随着油脂行情步入调整环节，市场的分歧持续出<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>现并开始加大，近期油脂一直处于大区间反复震荡之中。就目前<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>的情况而言，市场担心国家轮储忧虑增强，而基本面上暂时没有<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>很强的利好提振，保持震荡整理思路，暂时观望或逢高短空。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> <BR><BR>4 </SPAN>谷物：<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘：受周边商品涨势及产能持续担忧支撑，周三<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>玉米期货市场攀升至<SPAN lang=EN-US>14</SPAN>个月新高。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、美国私人出口商报告向未知目的地销售<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>万吨玉米；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>RABOBANK </SPAN>：澳洲<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010/11</SPAN>年度<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>小麦作物产量料为<SPAN lang=EN-US>2200</SPAN>万吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、预计安徽肥东县中晚稻总产略减。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货方面：受库存充足后期到货压力依然较大、广东港口拍卖成交清淡，优质玉米主流成交价由<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2090-2100</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨降至<SPAN lang=EN-US>2080-2090</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，港内库存<SPAN lang=EN-US>33</SPAN>万吨，但面临中秋及国庆的双节备货，预计价格走弱的<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>空间不大；北方港口玉米价格也出现走弱行情，平舱价格在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2000</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，也较上周末再跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，北方三<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>个港口玉米库存仍在<SPAN lang=EN-US>110</SPAN>万吨左右；郑州面粉厂收购价国产二等新麦价格<SPAN lang=EN-US>1990</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，持平；江西九江早稻<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>收购价<SPAN lang=EN-US>1960</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，水分<SPAN lang=EN-US>≤13.5%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存方面：玉米仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>900</SPAN>张，郑州强麦仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>4561</SPAN>张，早籼稻仓单为<SPAN lang=EN-US>2027</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：在下游需求旺盛和国家政策调控压力共同影响下，短期<SPAN lang=EN-US>C1105</SPAN>合约或震荡运行于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2000-2050 </SPAN>区间；下游需求有所回暖，后市<SPAN lang=EN-US>WS1105</SPAN>合约或震荡趋升；减产预期支撑，但上方中短期均线压力较大，短期<SPAN lang=EN-US>ER1101</SPAN>合约震荡于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2120-2150</SPAN>区间。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR><BR>5<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>粕豆<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：<SPAN lang=EN-US>CBOT</SPAN>美豆继续走低，缺乏利多消息支撑使得期价继续下行，后期将重新考验<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>美元关口位。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>美豆<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>月：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1005.5</SPAN>美分<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>蒲，<SPAN lang=EN-US>-4.5</SPAN>；<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>主要消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>FCSTONE</SPAN>公司预计美豆<SPAN lang=EN-US>2010/11</SPAN>年度产量为<SPAN lang=EN-US>33.9</SPAN>亿蒲。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>现货报价：国产大豆购销市场收购价格平稳，在新豆临近上市的情况下，油厂加大收购的意愿不强。<SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN>国内豆粕现货价格较为平稳。山东沿海地区成交<SPAN lang=EN-US>3160</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>库存方面：大豆仓单<SPAN lang=EN-US>11469</SPAN>。豆粕<SPAN lang=EN-US>0</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>操作建议：内盘方面，大豆豆粕能否走出趋势性的行情仍需等待，近期操作仍建议操短线为主。若期价跌破前期的低点，空单再进入不迟。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">金属产品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">锌、铝交易提示<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>外盘：隔夜伦锌大涨逾<SPAN lang=EN-US>3%</SPAN>，盘中逼近前期高点，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2149</SPAN>美元，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.58%</SPAN>；隔夜伦铝亦大幅攀升，电<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>合约收报于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2103</SPAN>美元，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.85%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.</SPAN>美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>ISM</SPAN>制造业活动反弹扩张<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2.</SPAN>美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>ADP</SPAN>就业人数减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>万人<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>现货方面：上海现货市场报价明显回升，<SPAN lang=EN-US>0#</SPAN>锌报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>17150-17250</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>A00</SPAN>铝在<SPAN lang=EN-US>15190-15230</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。上游厂商出货意愿较强，下游用户接货意愿较低，市场成交清淡。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>库存方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>锌库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>621400</SPAN>吨，较上交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>1150</SPAN>吨，上海交易所锌期货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>118373</SPAN>吨，较上交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>151</SPAN>吨；<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>铝库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>4435475</SPAN>吨，较上交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>7000</SPAN>吨；上海交易所铝期货库存为<SPAN lang=EN-US>354024</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>24</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>观点总结：沪锌显示出技术强势，沪铝跟涨无力，结合基本面情况来看，市场继续上行的空间有限，短期内呈现震荡走势的可能性较大，建议投资者维持震荡思路，可选择观望或日内交易。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">2<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">铜<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘：隔夜伦铜因美国制造业数据转好，再配合亚洲市好于预期的中国制造业数据，伦铜大涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.9%</SPAN>至<SPAN lang=EN-US>7620</SPAN>，运行于所有均线组之上。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>．美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>月民间就业人口意外减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>万人，<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>月修正为增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.7</SPAN>万人。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.</SPAN>美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>月建筑支出减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>1%</SPAN>，至<SPAN lang=EN-US>8052</SPAN>亿美元，预估为减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.5%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.</SPAN>美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>ISM8</SPAN>月制造业指数为<SPAN lang=EN-US>56.3</SPAN>，之前预估为<SPAN lang=EN-US>53.<BR><BR></SPAN>现货方面：上海现铜报<SPAN lang=EN-US>59350-59750</SPAN>元，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>900</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，现货平水铜贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>150</SPAN>，内外比价为<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.90-7.91<BR> </SPAN>库存：<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>日<SPAN lang=EN-US>LME</SPAN>铜库存增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>250</SPAN>吨至<SPAN lang=EN-US>398775</SPAN>吨，注销仓单占比为<SPAN lang=EN-US>7.66%</SPAN>，较昨日上涨，一般而言库存的增加需要伴随注销仓单比的下滑，目前该水平暗示库存还将有减少的空间。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>观点总结：昨日好于预期的美国制造业数据使得由中国，澳大利亚和欧洲引发的乐观情绪升温，进一步表明铜的需求前景看好，铜价大涨，美元下跌更是利多铜价，操作上保持继续逢低做多思路，下方支撑<SPAN lang=EN-US>58500</SPAN>，上方阻力<SPAN lang=EN-US>60000.<BR> <BR><BR>3<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>外盘：隔夜美国数据较好，削弱了部分避险需求，<SPAN lang=EN-US>COMEX</SPAN>期金冲高回落，其中<SPAN lang=EN-US>COMEX12</SPAN>月期金最高触及<SPAN lang=EN-US>1256</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>盎司，接近于<SPAN lang=EN-US>6</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>28</SPAN>日创下的<SPAN lang=EN-US>1267.2</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>盎司，<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>日沪金高开高走，走势强劲，收于均线组之上，近期黄金更倾向于走季节性上涨行情。美元的下跌助涨黄金，而上涨对于黄金的压制作用不强。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR> </SPAN>消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>．美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>月民间就业人口意外减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>万人，<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>月修正为增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.7</SPAN>万人。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.</SPAN>美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>月建筑支出减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>1%</SPAN>，至<SPAN lang=EN-US>8052</SPAN>亿美元，预估为减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.5%</SPAN>。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.</SPAN>美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>ISM8</SPAN>月制造业指数为<SPAN lang=EN-US>56.3</SPAN>，之前预估为<SPAN lang=EN-US>53. 4.</SPAN>全球最大的黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US>ETF9</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>日黄金持有量继续增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.52</SPAN>吨至<SPAN lang=EN-US>1304.02</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>现货方面：上海黄金<SPAN lang=EN-US>9999</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>273.2</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.3</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克，涨幅为<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.11%</SPAN>，现货贴水<SPAN lang=EN-US>0.9</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>克。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>观点总结：隔夜<SPAN lang=EN-US>COMEX</SPAN>期金因好于预期的美国数据，其避险需求有所下降，但美元的下跌同时又利多金价，使其只是小幅收跌，昨日沪金高开高走，强势上涨，期价处于上行通道，投资需求和印度对实物黄金需求增加支撑有望金价冲击前期高点。保持多头思路，预计在<SPAN lang=EN-US>1250</SPAN>一线有所震荡。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"> 4 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">钢材<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>8mm Q235</SPAN>高线上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4200</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，<SPAN lang=EN-US>20mm HRB400</SPAN>螺纹钢上海报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4200</SPAN>，涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>消息：<SPAN lang=EN-US> (1) </SPAN>商务部监测：上周钢价下降，产能继续释放<SPAN lang=EN-US>(2) </SPAN>央行下半年首现资金月度净回笼<SPAN lang=EN-US>1210</SPAN>亿<SPAN lang=EN-US>(3) </SPAN>银监会重申：坚决遏制房地产投机投资需求<SPAN lang=EN-US>(4) </SPAN>印度粉矿<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>日<SPAN lang=EN-US>CIF</SPAN>参考报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>152-154</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存：上海交易所螺纹钢仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>28528, </SPAN>持平。线材仓单日报为<SPAN lang=EN-US>609</SPAN>，持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>小结：周三<SPAN lang=EN-US>RB1101</SPAN>合约继续走高，沙钢上调出厂价及中国<SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>PMI</SPAN>止跌回升对期钢带来支撑，隔夜大宗商品普涨，操作上建议关注<SPAN lang=EN-US>4400</SPAN>附近压力，前期多单可逢高减仓。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">化工品<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1 LLDPE<BR> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、国内研发出高强度<SPAN lang=EN-US>PE</SPAN>包装膜专产品；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、壳牌等美生产商酝酿提高丙烯价格。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：齐鲁石化<SPAN lang=EN-US>DFDA-7042</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>9900</SPAN>元，较昨日上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>200</SPAN>元。市场成交清淡，社会库存较高。<SPAN lang=EN-US>CFR</SPAN>东北亚乙烯走势平稳，报<SPAN lang=EN-US>1010-1012</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，与昨日持平。东南亚乙烯则略有回落，报<SPAN lang=EN-US>980-982</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；市场人气低迷，未见有成交报道。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存数据：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>12281</SPAN>张，较上一交易日上涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>413</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：今日<SPAN lang=EN-US>LLDPE</SPAN>小幅反弹，但仍受制于上方均线的压力。基本面上：亚洲乙烯价格坚挺对连塑形成有力的支撑。但原油反弹受阻、现货市场成交清淡则对连塑形成一定的压力。预计连塑将延续区间整理格局，下方支撑<SPAN lang=EN-US>10150</SPAN>，上方压力<SPAN lang=EN-US>10700</SPAN>。操作上，投资者可在上述区间高抛低吸。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR><BR>2<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>PVC<BR> </SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、安徽采取强制措施限时淘汰电石等七行业落后产能；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、甘肃武威电石等重点工业项目建设持续稳步推进<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货市场：<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>市场价格继续保持平稳，上海申峰<SPAN lang=EN-US>WS1000</SPAN>小幅上涨，报<SPAN lang=EN-US>7650</SPAN>元（周边送到价），河南宇航<SPAN lang=EN-US>SG3-5</SPAN>报<SPAN lang=EN-US>7250</SPAN>元（当地出厂价），与上一交易日持平。厂家走货平稳。上游原料中，西北电石价格小幅上涨，报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3000—3300</SPAN>；华东电石报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3510—3600</SPAN>，与上一交易日持平。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存数据：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>6247</SPAN>张，与上一交易日持平<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：今日<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>小幅反弹，盘中多空双方互不相让，期价波动剧烈。显示市场分岐仍较严重。基本面上，国内电石价格强势运行，现货价格稳中有涨对<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>构成一定的支撑，但原油走势疲弱则对<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>形成一定的压力，短线<SPAN lang=EN-US>PVC</SPAN>或将延续区间整理。操作上，投资者可以<SPAN lang=EN-US>7330——7600</SPAN>区间高抛低吸，滚动操作。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> <BR><BR>3<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>PTA<BR> </SPAN>消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>日原油价格大幅回升，涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.77%</SPAN>，收报<SPAN lang=EN-US>73.91</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>桶，因中美制造业数据改善。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>、<SPAN lang=EN-US>2013</SPAN>年我国<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>需求或达<SPAN lang=EN-US>2630</SPAN>万吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US>3</SPAN>、新日石出台<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月亚洲<SPAN lang=EN-US>PX</SPAN>合同结价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>950</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US>CFR</SPAN>亚洲。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>现货价格：华东<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>现货市场气氛回落，市场部分报盘降至<SPAN lang=EN-US>7300-7350</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近；市场询盘气氛清淡，主流商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>7250-7300</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近展开，实盘稀少。亚洲<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>现货市场气氛清淡，台产货少量报盘在<SPAN lang=EN-US>900</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>890-895</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近；韩国货商谈在<SPAN lang=EN-US>875-880</SPAN>美元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨附近进行，实盘稀少。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>库存数据：交易所仓单报<SPAN lang=EN-US>26693</SPAN>张，较上一交易日减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>张，有效预报<SPAN lang=EN-US>3488</SPAN>张。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR> </SPAN>观点总结：国际原油大幅回升，新日石出台<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月亚洲<SPAN lang=EN-US>PX</SPAN>合同结价在<SPAN lang=EN-US>950</SPAN>美元，下游聚酯工厂切片报价表现较为坚挺，<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>期现价差缩窄，整体表现较为抗跌。<SPAN lang=EN-US>PTA</SPAN>震荡回升，期价继续在<SPAN lang=EN-US>7600</SPAN>平台获得支撑，短线反抽测试上方均线压力，整体维持<SPAN lang=EN-US>7600-8000</SPAN>区间震荡。操作上，短线区间交易<SPAN lang=EN-US>,7700</SPAN>一线短多交易。<SPAN lang=EN-US> <BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">4 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">燃料油<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">9</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">月<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>日，受美国制造业数据好转提振，纽约商业交易所<SPAN lang=EN-US>(NYMEX)</SPAN>原油期货走高。此外，股市上涨也抵消了市场对石油库存不断增加的担忧。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">纽约商交所十月原油期货结算价涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>1.99</SPAN>美元，至每桶<SPAN lang=EN-US>73.91</SPAN>美元，涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US>2.7%</SPAN>，<SPAN lang=EN-US>31</SPAN>日为下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>3.7%<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1.<SPAN style="mso-tab-count: 1"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">国供应管理协会<SPAN lang=EN-US>(ISM)8</SPAN>月制造业指数升至<SPAN lang=EN-US>56.3</SPAN>，高于分析师预期的<SPAN lang=EN-US>52.5<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">2.<SPAN style="mso-tab-count: 1"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">美国能源情报署公布，<SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>27</SPAN>日当周原油库存增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>340</SPAN>万桶。汽油库存小幅下滑<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>万桶，馏分油库存减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>70</SPAN>万桶<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">期货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">上期所库存<SPAN lang=EN-US>213200</SPAN>吨，增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>3000</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">华南燃料油现货市场行情较差，个别转而交投期货市场，当前买卖双方均不愿作出让步，今日个别继续下调，预计后市或将以稳为主。今日华南混调油最新交易估价：船用混调<SPAN lang=EN-US>180</SPAN>交易过驳价至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4400-4410</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨；库提价<SPAN lang=EN-US>4410-4420</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，均价持平，国产锅炉用混调<SPAN lang=EN-US>180CST</SPAN>交易价至<SPAN lang=EN-US>4150-4200</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨，均价下跌<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：国内经济数据公布偏好，刺激油价电子盘翻红，但是整体基本面条件不容持续性乐观，加上期货仓单不断增加，期市承压。沪燃<SPAN lang=EN-US>1011</SPAN>合约空单持有观望<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>关注<SPAN lang=EN-US>4300</SPAN>附近的短线支撑。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">5<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">天然橡胶<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">9</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">月<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>日，受美国制造业数据好转提振，纽约商业交易所<SPAN lang=EN-US>(NYMEX)</SPAN>原油期货走高至<SPAN lang=EN-US>73.91</SPAN>。此外，股市上涨也抵消了市场对石油库存不断增加的担忧。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">东京橡胶期货<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>日基准合约<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>RSS3</SPAN>合约早盘低开，期价随后震荡反弹走高，部分受阻于日圆兑美元的下滑以及贵金属价格上涨的影响<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">消息方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1.<SPAN style="mso-tab-count: 1"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">新条例出台 轮胎等用品纳入召回范围<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">商务部决定将原产于题本进口氯丁橡胶的烦倾销税税率调整为<SPAN lang=EN-US>9.9%-43.9%<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">期货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">上期所仓单日报<SPAN lang=EN-US>14955</SPAN>吨，减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>510</SPAN>吨<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">上海期货交易所<SPAN lang=EN-US>RU1101</SPAN>成交及持仓前<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>总排名，持买单总计<SPAN lang=EN-US>84414</SPAN>手，减持<SPAN lang=EN-US>395</SPAN>手；持卖单总计<SPAN lang=EN-US>60664</SPAN>手，增持<SPAN lang=EN-US>946</SPAN>手。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">现货方面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">国内天然橡胶市场，国产标一市场主流报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>25300-25600</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨之间；泰国<SPAN lang=EN-US>3#</SPAN>烟片胶市场资源紧俏，报价稀少，有报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>27500-27700</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨（<SPAN lang=EN-US>17%</SPAN>票）左右；越南芒街<SPAN lang=EN-US>3L</SPAN>胶参考报价<SPAN lang=EN-US>26000-26200</SPAN>元<SPAN lang=EN-US>/</SPAN>吨（<SPAN lang=EN-US>17%</SPAN>票），市场整体库存偏低，商家对后市仍存在看涨心态，并不急于出货，下游买家对持续攀升胶价高度警戒，导致市场成交欠佳。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">观点总结：从市场的库存情况来看，期货库存本周重新进入减少格局，而现货库存本身处于偏低水平，支撑整个胶市高位运行，但同时高价也限制了下游的采购兴趣，“有价无市”的格局难以支撑天胶向上强势突破。沪胶短期维持<SPAN lang=EN-US>25500-26000</SPAN>区间震荡格局，日内或者是观望为主。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">宏观股指<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">外盘表现：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">外盘指数<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-tab-count: 3"> </SPAN></SPAN>收盘<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-tab-count: 2"> </SPAN></SPAN>涨跌<SPAN lang=EN-US> <SPAN style="mso-tab-count: 1"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></SPAN>涨幅<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">道琼斯指数<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>10269.47<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>254.75<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>2.54%<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">纳斯达克指数<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>2176.84<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>62.81<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>2.97% <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">标普<SPAN lang=EN-US>500</SPAN>指数<SPAN lang=EN-US> <SPAN style="mso-tab-count: 1"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>1080.29<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>30.96<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>2.95%<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><A href="http://stock.eastmoney.com/GlobalIndex/FTSE.html" target=_blank><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: windowtext; TEXT-DECORATION: none; text-underline: none"><SPAN lang=EN-US>富时100</SPAN></SPAN></A></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">指数<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>5366.41<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>141.19 <SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>2.70% <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><A href="http://stock.eastmoney.com/GlobalIndex/GDAXI.html" target=_blank><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: windowtext; TEXT-DECORATION: none; text-underline: none"><SPAN lang=EN-US>德国DAX</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: windowtext; TEXT-DECORATION: none; text-underline: none"><SPAN lang=EN-US>指数</SPAN></SPAN></A><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>6083.90<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>158.68<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>2.68% <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><A href="http://stock.eastmoney.com/GlobalIndex/FCHI.html" target=_blank><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: windowtext; TEXT-DECORATION: none; text-underline: none"><SPAN lang=EN-US>法国CAC40</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: windowtext; TEXT-DECORATION: none; text-underline: none"><SPAN lang=EN-US>指数</SPAN></SPAN></A><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3623.84<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>133.05<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>3.81%<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">C0MEX<A href="http://finance.sina.com.cn/money/future/quote_hf.html?GC" target=_blank><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: windowtext; TEXT-DECORATION: none; text-underline: none"><SPAN lang=EN-US>黄金</SPAN></SPAN></A><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>73.84<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>-0.07 <SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>-0.09% <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">NYMEX</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">原油<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>1246.80 <SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>-1.10 <SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>-0.10% <o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">美元指数<SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>82.53<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>0.03<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>0.04%<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; mso-char-indent-count: 1.0"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">消息面：<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN">1.PMI近4个月首次反弹，经济有望“软着陆”；<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN">2.证监会副主席姚刚：积极推进国际板和场外市场建设；<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN">3.发改委要求加快项目建设，下半年完成4万亿投资计划；<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 10.5pt; TEXT-INDENT: -10.5pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-char-indent-count: -1.0; mso-layout-grid-align: none" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN">4.美8月份美国制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)由7月份的55.5上升至56.3，8月份制造业活动实现扩张；<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 10.5pt; TEXT-INDENT: -10.5pt; mso-char-indent-count: -1.0"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN">5.美联储承诺在经济复苏增强之前,保持融资低成本,但如果没有支持企业的财政及监管政策出台的话,美联储不应该做更多以提振经济增长；</SPAN><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">市场分析<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=a style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 5.25pt; TEXT-INDENT: 15.75pt; mso-char-indent-count: 1.5; mso-para-margin-left: .5gd"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">周三期指早盘小幅高开，大幅攀升。主力合约虽一度突破<SPAN lang=EN-US>2950</SPAN>点，但因上方阻力较大，市场做空态势强化，期指自高位震荡走低，午盘更接连下挫多条均线，后受<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>日均线下方支撑而小幅收于其均线上方。除了利空政策的打压，市场对下周即将公布的<SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>月份宏观数据极为关注，通货膨胀压力显现使市场做多动能不足。同时期指受<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>日和<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日均线压制，期指上行的可能性不大。预计期指短期仍将延续弱势。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">『免责声明：期市瞬息万变，盘中突发消息也将影响走势突变，投资人应盘中实时应
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