<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">[</FONT></SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">全球主要股指</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">]<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 10.7pt; TEXT-INDENT: -0.2pt; mso-para-margin-left: 1.0gd; mso-char-indent-count: -.02"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">31</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日收盘：上证指数</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2638.80</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.52%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；沪深</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">300</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">指数</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2903.19</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.41%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；中小板指</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">6182.49</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.83%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；恒生指数</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">20536.49 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.97%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；德</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">DAX 5925.22 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.22%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；道琼工业</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> 10014.72 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.05%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；纳斯达克</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> 2114.03 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.28%<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">[</FONT></SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">瑞达国内宏观观点</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">]<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">机构预测<SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>月信贷约<SPAN lang=EN-US>4500</SPAN>亿元<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; BACKGROUND: #f5f8fd; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">中金公司预计</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; BACKGROUND: #f5f8fd; COLOR: black"><FONT face="Times New Roman">8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; BACKGROUND: #f5f8fd; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月份新增贷款在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; BACKGROUND: #f5f8fd; COLOR: black"><FONT face="Times New Roman">4500</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; BACKGROUND: #f5f8fd; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">亿左右，较</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; BACKGROUND: #f5f8fd; COLOR: black"><FONT face="Times New Roman">7</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; BACKGROUND: #f5f8fd; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月份的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; BACKGROUND: #f5f8fd; COLOR: black"><FONT face="Times New Roman">5328</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; BACKGROUND: #f5f8fd; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">亿元有所回落。兴业银行资深经济学家鲁政委认为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月新增人民币贷款为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">4400</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">亿左右。中银国际则认为新增贷款规模下降至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">4000</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">亿左右。我们认为，今年上半年信贷投放完成了</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">7.5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">万亿的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">61.6%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，超过预定投放节奏“</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">3</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">：</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">3</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">：</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">：</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">”的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.6%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; BACKGROUND: #f5f8fd; COLOR: black"><FONT face="Times New Roman">7</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; BACKGROUND: #f5f8fd; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月发放信贷</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; BACKGROUND: #f5f8fd; COLOR: black"><FONT face="Times New Roman">5328</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; BACKGROUND: #f5f8fd; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">亿元，</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">剩下的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2.34</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">万亿平均分配至今年余下的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">个月，那么每个月信贷平均约为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">4700</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">亿左右，近期房地产贷款持续走低，我们认可信贷低于</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">4500</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">亿的机构预测。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">机构认为</SPAN></B><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">8</FONT></SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN></B><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">CPI</FONT></SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">将创年内新高</SPAN></B><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">中金公司预计</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">CPI</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">同比增速约在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">3.4%~3.7%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">之间。民生银行金融市场部认为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">CPI</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">同比增幅有可能在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">10</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月份触及年内高点，甚至超过</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">4%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，随后将略有回落。我们认为由于</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月农产品价格涨幅较上月并无减弱迹象，此外，粮食价格和猪肉价格的涨幅很可能还会高于历史平均水平，因此</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">CPI</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">涨幅肯定超过</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">3.3%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">《人民日报》：如果房地产调控长时间不能见效，应当适时出台进一步的措施</SPAN></B><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> <o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">题为“房价合理回落是大势所趋”的文章预计房地产调控的效果还将进一步显现，会有更多新盘顺应市场趋势，理性定价，以较低价格入市。至于房价下行的趋势能否确立，则将在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">9-10</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月间见分晓。从目前房地产市场的形势看，房价仍然处于历史高位，远高于普通购房者的购买力，这是阻碍成交量回升的最主要因素。我们也预计政府的容忍底线在今年的第四季度，如果房价一如近期继续上扬，更严厉的调控措施将会年内出台。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">央行官员：争取国家允许东北开展存款利率上浮试点</SPAN></B><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> <o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">央行东北地区高级官员表示，争取国家允许东北开展存款利率上浮试点。具体操作上，采取分阶段逐步扩大存款利率上浮幅度的方法，以确保改革平稳有序。我们认为，允许存款利率上浮能减少负实际利率带来的压力，但鉴于存款方面并无压力，实行的可能性并不大；此外，维持贷款利率不变也会使市场少受冲击。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 9.4pt; TEXT-INDENT: -9.4pt; mso-char-indent-count: -1.04"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">[</FONT></SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">瑞达国际宏观观点</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">]<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1. </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美联储公布</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">10</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日议息会议记录显示，大多数</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">Fed</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">官员认为，必要时将收入再投入抵押贷款市场，这在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月中已经有所体现。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2. </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">欧元区失业率保持</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">10.0%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，符合市场预期</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2. </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">德国劳工部昨日公布数据显示德国</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">7</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月未经调整的失业总人数为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">319.2</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">万。德国</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月份失业率持平于</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">7.6%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，尽管用工需求有所上升，但仍不及预期。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">3. </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">英国</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">7</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月份消费者信贷净额增长放缓，主因是抵押贷款持续低迷，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">[</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">今日关注重点</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">]</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">：德国</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">7</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月实际零售销售；欧元区</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">Markit8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月制造业采购经理人指数终值；美国</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">ISM</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">制造业采购经理人指数</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 9.4pt; TEXT-INDENT: -9.4pt; mso-char-indent-count: -1.04"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">[</FONT></SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">观点总结</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">]<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">国内股市方面，沪综指周二收跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black"><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.5%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black"><FONT face="Times New Roman">8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月累计微涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black"><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.05%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，今日大盘未能承接周一的升势，因隔夜外盘走跌，国内消息面虽然相对淡静，但投资者对经济前景的忧虑重新占据主导，落袋为安成为首选，金融等权重股走势疲软</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">。预计突破前期</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2680</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">点仍有难度，<SPAN style="COLOR: black">上证综指在短期内料维持横盘向上整理格局。</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">国外方面，欧元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美元（利好）；美元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日元（利空）；美指（利空）；德国国债收益率（利空）；美国国债收益率（利空）；日本国债收益率（中性）；</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">LIBOR</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times Ne
页:
[1]