瑞达期货 发表于 2010-8-27 09:01

<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-hansi-font-family: 黑体">瑞达期货：<SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>27</SPAN>日宏观视点<SPAN lang=EN-US><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></B></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">[</FONT></SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">全球主要股指</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">]<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">26</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日收盘：上证指数</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2603.48</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.27%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；沪深</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">300</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">指数</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2850.09</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.25%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；中小板指</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">5871.95</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.71%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；恒生指数</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">20612.06</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.11%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；德</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">DAX 5912.58 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.22%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；道琼工业</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> 9985.81 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.74%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；纳斯达克</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> 2118.69 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.07%<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 10.7pt; TEXT-INDENT: -0.2pt; mso-para-margin-left: 1.0gd; mso-char-indent-count: -.02"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">[</FONT></SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">瑞达国内宏观观点</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">]<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></B></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">发改委正考虑在电力等行业开展小范围碳交易试点</SPAN></B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> <o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">发改委正在研究制订一个发展低碳经济的指导意见，并考虑在一些特定的行业和地区开展小范围的碳交易试点，而电力、化工和石油等行业入选可能性大。这些行业的企业多是大型央企，可通过集团内部的碳交易来推进节能、控制二氧化碳排放。下一步发改委将把这个目标落实在地方与行业的发展规划中，并准备试行建立碳排放强度考核制度。中国是世界市场上最大的碳排放权</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">(CERs)</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">供应国，但国内尚未允许交易碳排放权。此外，据联合国和世界银行预测，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2012</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">年全球碳市场容量将超过石油市场，成为世界第一交易市场。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">央行：</SPAN></B><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">7</FONT></SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月份外汇占款增长</SPAN></B><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1709.51</FONT></SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">亿元</SPAN></B><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> <o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></B></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">央行</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">25</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日公布的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">7</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月份外汇占款较此前</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月、</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">6</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月的数据有较明显的回升，主要原因是当月外贸顺差的高增长。此外，这一增量仍然延续了此前两月外汇占款小于当月外贸顺差与</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">FDI(</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">外商直接投资</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">)</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">之和的走势。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">7</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">FDI</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">增长</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">69.24</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">亿美元，与外贸顺差合计约为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2400</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">亿元人民币，仍有近</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">700</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">亿元无法被解释。显示当前资本流入仍然偏弱，也减弱了年内央行上调存款准备金率的可能性。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">发改委：中部崛起规划细节年内完成</SPAN></B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> <o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">发改委周四称中部六省要在今底前完成中部地区崛起规划实施的具体方案，并提出支持中部城市群在重大改革领域先行先试。明确提出要促进中部地区武汉城市圈、中原城市群、长株潭城市群、皖江城市带、环鄱阳湖城市群和太原城市圈六大城市群一体化的发展，把城市群建成支撑中部地区崛起的核心经济增长极。同时，允许城市群在政府行政管理体制、国有企业改革、非公有制经济发展、就业、职业培训和社会保障体制等方面先行先试。中国国务院去年</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">9</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月通过《促进中部地区崛起规划》，规划称加强中部地区粮食生产基地为重点，推进大型煤矿建设，加快电力和电网建设以及发展原材料精深加工，争取到</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2015</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">年实现经济发展水平显着提高。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 9.4pt; TEXT-INDENT: -9.4pt; mso-char-indent-count: -1.04"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">[</FONT></SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">瑞达国际宏观观点</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">]<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></B></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1. </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">截至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">21</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日当周美国首次申请失业救济人数减少</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">31,000</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">人</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">简评：该数据仍不足以表明就业市场出现明显改善。尽管上周首次申请失业救济人数降幅高过预期，但截至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">21</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日首次申请失业救济人数的四周移动平均值增加</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">3,250</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">人至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">486,750</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">人，达到</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2009</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">年</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">11</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">28</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日以来的最高水平。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2. </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美国堪萨斯城联邦储备银行</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月份制造业指数由</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">7</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">14</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">降为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">0<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">3. </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美国</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">7</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月中西部制造业产值增加</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2.2%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，达到</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2008</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">年</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">12</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月以来最高水平。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">简评：萨斯城辖区制造业陷入停滞。得益于汽车业复苏，美国中西部制造业活动</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">7</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月份回升。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">3</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">．德国</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">GfK 9</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月份消费者信心指数升至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">4.1<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">简评：受最近经济方面利好提振，三个分类指数里的经济预期及收入预期指数均上升，购买倾向指数持平。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">4. </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">英国</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">CBI</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">零售销售差值由</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">7</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">33</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">升至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">35<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">简评：因促销活动、温暖天气、暑假及返校前购物等因素提振了市场需求，英国</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月份零售情况达到三年来的最好水平</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;</SPAN><o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">．意大利</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">ISAE</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">消费者信心指数为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">104.1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，低于经济学家预期中值</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">105.6</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">今日关注重点：日本</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">7</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月全国消费者物价指数；日本</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">7</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月失业率；德国</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月消费者物价指数初值；英国第二季度</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">GDP</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">修正值；美国第二季度实际</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">GDP</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">修正值；美国</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月密歇根大学消费者信心指数终值；美联储主席伯南克发表题为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">"</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">经济前景及美联储的政策回应</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">"</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">的讲话。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 9.4pt; TEXT-INDENT: -9.4pt; mso-char-indent-count: -1.04"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">[</FONT></SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">观点总结</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">]<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">国内股市方面，沪综指周四微幅收高，因预期出台更多楼市调控政策的忧虑挥之不去，金融地产等权重板块继昨日大幅下挫之势，今日继续震荡下行，沪市</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">A</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">股成交则大幅缩减逾两成。预计近期大盘仍将继续震荡。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">国外方面，欧元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美元（利空）；美元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日元（利好）；美指（利好）；德国国债收益率（利空）；美国国债收益率（利空）；日本国债收益率（中性）；</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">LIBOR</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">隔夜（中性）；</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt"><FONT face="Times New Ro

大槐树 发表于 2010-8-27 15:36

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