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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">[</FONT></SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">全球主要股指</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">]<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 10.7pt; TEXT-INDENT: -0.2pt; mso-para-margin-left: 1.0gd; mso-char-indent-count: -.02"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">24</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日收盘：上证指数</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2650.31</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.41%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；沪深</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">300</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">指数</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2911.83</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.54%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；中小板指</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">5939.68</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.40%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；恒生指数</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">20658.71</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.10%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；德</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">DAX 5935.44 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.26%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；道琼工业</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman"> 10040.45 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.32%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">；纳斯达克</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman"> 2123.76 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.66%</FONT></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">[</FONT></SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">瑞达国内宏观观点</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">]<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">国务院周四汇报今年经济情况</SPAN></B><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">按照第十一届全国人民代表大会常务委员会第十六次会议日程安排，本周四将听取国务院关于今年以来国民经济和社会发展计划执行情况的报告。按照近年来的惯例，通常是由国家发改委受国务院委托，该报告一般会介绍经济社会发展总体形势、盘点经济社会发展面临的问题和挑战、提出在中央关于下半年经济工作部署下的重点任务。</SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">国民经济和社会发展计划执行情况的报告的关注重点</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></B></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">该报告主要对下半年的经济工作予以定调，外界可通过此报告了解政府下半年经济工作的部署精神。主要的关注重点是一是下半年经济是否会继续回落，回落的幅度会有多大；二是通胀预期的变化；三是下半年外需及外贸变化；四是上半年三大调控政策</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">——</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">房地产调控、地方融资平台清理和节能减排等政策效果的影响。</SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">上证报：第四季中国房价可能明显下跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></B></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">中国政府严格限制房地产开发贷款以及地产商在资本市场融资，严控房地产融资，遏制房市投机，阻止房价过快上涨。光大银行上海分行一位人士称目前房地产企业的资金链已经非常紧张，不少开发商都已经提早做好了过紧日子的准备。深发展上海分行相关人士称最早可能在今年四季度，房价就将出现明显下跌。此外，去年地产开发商大量拿地，在目前的政策下需要抓紧时间开发，因此未来数季住房供应可望增加，供大于求也会导致房价下跌。</SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">中石化预计下半年中国原油进口放缓</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></B></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">中国石化集团高层周二表示，中国原油进口可能放缓，但由于消费增长和建筑市场活跃，原油进口仍将保持在健康水平。原油增长速度可能小幅下降，但到处在建新楼、新的道路、还有重建项目。年底，经济形势将会良好，消费情况也将良好。此预期与近期进口刺激政策的相关讨论有所相反。</SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 10.95pt; TEXT-INDENT: -10.95pt; mso-char-indent-count: -1.04"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">[</FONT></SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">瑞达国际宏观观点</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">]<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></B></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.<SPAN style="mso-tab-count: 1"> </SPAN></FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美国</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">7</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月份成屋销量下降</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">27.2%</FONT></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">简评：美国</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">7</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月份成屋销量创纪录的下滑</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">, </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">销量降至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">15</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">年来最低水平，库存量飙升，表明经济增长减速。昨日美国股市受此影响下跌。投资者对经济状况的担忧加剧。</SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">．美国大规模经济刺激计划令今年第二季实际国内生产总值</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">(GDP)</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">增幅提升了多至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">4.5%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">。</SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">简评：经济刺激逐渐消退，未来经济增长动力堪忧。</SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">3. </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">德国第二季度</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">GDP</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">数据获确认；相当于</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">GDP</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">3.5%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">上半年赤字扩大逾一倍</SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">简评：德国第二季度创出</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">20</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">年来最快</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">GDP</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">增速，上半年赤字扩大逾一倍，超过欧盟规定的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">3%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">比例，接下来德国政府的财政紧缩措施将放缓经济增长势头。</SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">4</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">．英国银行业者协会</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">(BBA)</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">周二公布的数据显示</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">,7</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月经季节调整後的抵押贷款批准宗数较上年同期减少</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">18.5%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">。</SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">简评：英国可售房产增加，以及房价涨幅放缓也为促成购房抵押贷款批准宗数的上升。</SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 10.95pt; TEXT-INDENT: -10.95pt; mso-char-indent-count: -1.04"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">[</FONT></SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">观点总结</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">]<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></B></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">国内股市方面，沪综指周二小幅收高，钢铁板块走出一轮补涨行情，而前期受政策调控预期影响，被投资者看淡的房地产板块亦发力上扬，进一步激励场内人气。而受</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">A</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">、</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">B</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">股或将合并预期激励，上海</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">B</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">股指数大涨逾</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">5%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，创九个月最大单日涨幅。</SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">国外方面，欧元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美元（利好）；美元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日元（利好）；美指（利空）；德国国债收益率（利空）；美国国债收益率（利空）；日本国债收益率（中性）；</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">LIBOR</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-ascii-fo
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