武当天鹰 发表于 2010-8-11 20:53

<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-hansi-font-family: 新宋体">今日两市小幅低开后选择震荡<SPAN XML:LANG="EN-US"><SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN></SPAN>在西藏新疆、旅游酒店、百元股、工程建筑、房地产、横琴新区、外贸、数字电视等板块的引领下，开始了笔者预期的超跌反弹，上证综指重返<SPAN XML:LANG="EN-US"><SPAN lang=EN-US>2600</SPAN></SPAN>点大关，最高摸至<SPAN XML:LANG="EN-US"><SPAN lang=EN-US>2618</SPAN></SPAN>点遇阻回落，最低探至<SPAN lang=EN-US>2586</SPAN>点在<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日均线<SPAN lang=EN-US>2584</SPAN>点一线获得支撑<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>午后<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>在万科<SPAN lang=EN-US>A</SPAN>的放量拉抬之下<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>市场人气逐步恢复<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>房地产板块再度逞强<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>引领股指震荡盘升<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>最终上证综指以小涨<SPAN lang=EN-US>12</SPAN>点报收于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2607</SPAN>点<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>成交萎缩至<SPAN lang=EN-US>902</SPAN>亿元<SPAN lang=EN-US>.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-hansi-font-family: 新宋体">笔者之前研判的“多空双方有望在<SPAN XML:LANG="EN-US"><SPAN lang=EN-US>2570-2580</SPAN></SPAN>点一线展开争夺<SPAN XML:LANG="EN-US"><SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN></SPAN>盘中震荡将有望加剧<SPAN XML:LANG="EN-US"><SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN></SPAN>短期超跌反弹有望在明日探至<SPAN XML:LANG="EN-US"><SPAN lang=EN-US>2576</SPAN></SPAN>点一线出现<SPAN XML:LANG="EN-US"><SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN></SPAN>”的预期，今日盘中在地产板块之前遇有利空的背景下，反而走强，今日之所以上证综指没有瞬间击穿<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日均线<SPAN lang=EN-US>2584</SPAN>点，从而争夺<SPAN lang=EN-US>2570-2580</SPAN>点一线，应该归功于万科<SPAN lang=EN-US>A</SPAN>的引领<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>否则<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>股指仅相差<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>点即可击穿<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日均线<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>那么多空争夺将异常激烈<SPAN lang=EN-US>,20</SPAN>日均线的支撑成功<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>加之地产板块的强劲崛起<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>激发市场做多人气<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>最终股指选择了震荡盘升的走势<SPAN lang=EN-US>.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-hansi-font-family: 新宋体">从技术上看<SPAN lang=EN-US>:</SPAN>上证今日光脚略带上影线的阳线<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>依然处于周二长阴线的下端<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>由此我们认为<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>止跌反弹依然处于弱势<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>昨日的暴跌依然没有就此罢手<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>明日股指依然有再次击穿<SPAN lang=EN-US>2600</SPAN>点并且考验<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日均线<SPAN lang=EN-US>2582</SPAN>点一线的要求<SPAN lang=EN-US>.</SPAN>明日走势的研判<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>关键在于<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>日均线能否经受住考验<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>如果站稳那么重拾升势依然有望<SPAN lang=EN-US>.</SPAN>反之<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>股指必将在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2570-2580</SPAN>点一线争夺<SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN>同时有可能瞬间探至<SPAN lang=EN-US>2555</SPAN>点一线寻求支撑<SPAN lang=EN-US>.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 仿宋_GB2312; mso-hansi-font-family: 新宋体">操作上：，笔者依然坚持周二收评的观点：“多空双方有望在<SPAN XML:LANG="EN-US"><SPAN lang=EN-US>2570-2580</SPAN></SPAN>点一线展开争夺<SPAN XML:LANG="EN-US"><SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN></SPAN>盘中震荡将有望加剧<SPAN XML:LANG="EN-US"><SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN></SPAN>短期超跌反弹有望在明日探至<SPAN XML:LANG="EN-US"><SPAN lang=EN-US>2576</SPAN></SPAN>点一线出现<SPAN XML:LANG="EN-US"><SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN></SPAN>操作上逢反弹可以减仓<SPAN XML:LANG="EN-US"><SPAN lang=EN-US>,</SPAN></SPAN>逢股指探至<SPAN XML:LANG="EN-US"><SPAN lang=EN-US>2550-2566</SPAN></SPAN>点一线适度建仓<SPAN XML:LANG="EN-US"><SPAN lang=EN-US>!</SPAN></SPAN>” 今日早盘按照笔者<SPAN XML:LANG="EN-US"><SPAN lang=EN-US>"</SPAN></SPAN>逢反弹减仓<SPAN XML:LANG="EN-US"><SPAN lang=EN-US>"</SPAN></SPAN>思路的相信定有收获</SPAN></P>
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