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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1. </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">基本面分析</SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">上周美元继续下跌走势，因欧、英、澳等国发布的经济数据整体强于预期，且欧元区国家发售国债计划顺利完成，使市场信心似乎进一步恢复。反观美国，从美联储公布的会议纪要显示，美国下调经济增长预期，美国经济复苏前景并不乐观，美联储为保持经济复苏势头恐于年内继续维持利率于较低水平，故美元跌破重要支撑而走低。但上周末美元开始反弹，由于中国方面发布的上半年经济数据释放出经济增速放缓的信号，而美国上周公布的消费信心指数也大幅逊于预期，故市场中避险情绪重新开始抬头，投资者纷纷于周末将高风险货币头寸进行了结，商品货币也因世界经济复苏可能减弱而出现回落。</SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">目前市场依旧选择风险情绪作为投资方向的重要参考标准，而风险情绪又受到各主要经济体，如美、欧、中等地的基本面状况所支配，在各地经济缓慢、平稳复苏时，市场将参照基本面数据更多的投资于非美高风险币种，即使出现类似欧、英等国主权评级可能调降的负面新闻，投资者仍然选择持有，因为美国的经济形势也许并不比其它地区优异。然而只要各主要经济体的负面信息可能进一步演化为导致世界经济大幅下滑甚至倒退的风险事件时，市场便毫不犹豫的将美元、日元，包括黄金在内的具有避险功能的货币作为首选。那么，投资者目前需要考虑的就是，今年下半年世界经济有没有爆出新的重大风险事件的可能性。显然，这种可能性是存在的。欧元区国债标售结果好于预期，似乎暂时缓解了主权债务危机对经济的伤害。但从长远来看，欧洲可能由此背负更加沉重的债务负担，而由债务危机引发的银行系统风险将于本周内得到检验，如本周末公布的欧洲银行压力测试结果出现意外，风险情绪可能再次缘起欧洲。而中国经济的放缓也成为世界关注的焦点，如作为世界经济领头羊的中国经济于下半年遭遇挫折，对各个地区，特别是大宗商品出口国的形势将造成严重打击，这一担忧已从上周开始显现。</SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">预计周内美元可能出现反弹，而欧元走势将成为周内关注的焦点，即将发布的欧洲银行业压力测试结果尚存较大的不确定性，在经济走势摇摆不定，风险情绪卷土重来之时，美元可能获得暂时的喘息机会。</SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2. </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">技术面分析</SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">DXY</FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美元指数上周跌破关键支持</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">100</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日均线</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">83.50</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">后，继续下探至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">82.00</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">区域得到暂时支撑而回到</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">82.50</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">上方。美指下步支撑位于自去年底上扬以来的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">50%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">回调位</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">81.50</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">附近，周内如不能在此获得有效支持，美指恐进一步向前期阶段性低点</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">80.00</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">一线下落。但若美指受避险情绪支撑展开反弹，上行阻力首先在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日均线</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">83.20</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">一带，之后为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">10</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日均线</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">83.50 -83.60</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">区间内。</SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">EURUSD</FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">欧元上周触及</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.3000</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">整数关口后回落，但汇价依然收于</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">100</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日均线上方，且相对强弱指标保持在上升趋势线以上，表明欧元处于涨势。周内欧元有效站上</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.3000</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">一线，上行目标可能继续指向</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.3100 - 1.3120</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">区域。欧元下行支持首先在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">100</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日均线</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.2900</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">水准，之后为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日均线和近期上升通道上轨（见图）</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.2800</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">一带，再以后还有</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">10</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日均线</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.2700</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">附近的支持。欧元汇价只有在跌下前期阶段性低位</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.2520,1.2500</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">水平后，才可能重新转回跌势。</SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">GBPUSD</FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">英镑上周突破下降通道（见图）上轨后触及</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.5470</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">水平，但周末又跌回到通道以内，表明英镑上行尚存较大阻力。本周英镑如重新上破通道上端</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.5350</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">一线，并再度站上</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.5400</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">水准，后市汇价可能进一步向</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.5500 - 1.5520</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">的前期阶段高位区域上行。英镑下方关键支撑在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日和</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">10</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日均线之间</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.5200 -1.5250</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">区域，跌破此一区间，英镑恐向前期阶段性低位</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.4950 - 1.5000</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">区域滑落。</SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">USDJPY</FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美日上周因美国经济前景暗淡而大幅走低，</SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">汇价有效跌穿</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">87.00</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">阶段性支撑后，进一步打开了向去年底低位区域</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">84.80 - 85.00</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">下滑的空间。美日反弹上行阻力在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">87.00</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">一带，更强阻力则在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日和</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">10</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日均线交汇处</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">88.00</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">附近。美日反弹不能突破</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">88.00</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">一线，将确认跌势继续。</SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">AUDUSD</FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">澳元上周虽然创出</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.8870</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">的阶段性新高，但在中国放缓经济增长的背景下大幅回落，汇价已跌下</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.8700</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">水平，并收于</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">10</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日均线之下。从相对强弱指标来看，澳元未能突破上行压力线而掉头向下，预示本周有进一步走低的可能。澳元下行支持初步位于</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">55</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日均线</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.8600</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">上方，之后为前期颈线位</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.8500 - 0.8550</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">区间，更强支持则在前期小双底底部</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.8315</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">一带（见图），守稳此区域，则澳元可能再度回调向上展开大区间振荡行情。</SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">XAUUSD</FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">黄金上周盘整后未能守住</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1200.00</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">整数关口，金价下探至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1186.00</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">附近后小幅反弹。本周黄金如能守住</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1180.00</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">上方支撑，可望再度向</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1200.00</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">一线反弹。但若失守</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1180.00</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">区间，下行初步目标指向前期低位</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1166.00</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，之后为更低区间</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1146.00 - 1150.00</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">一带。黄金不能重返</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1200.00</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">之上，跌势恐将继续。</SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">发稿时间：</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman"> 2010.7.18</FONT></SPAN></P>
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