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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1. </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">基本面分析</SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">上周美元走势继续保持下跌，因澳大利亚、加拿大就业数据表现良好，在商品货币带动下，非美货币整体走势强劲。近期欧洲主权债务问题一时在市场中淡化，市场避险情绪似乎进一步缓解。相比美国数据，自</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">7</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月初公布的非农就业状况不甚理想外，上周发布的消费指标也差于预期，使人开始怀疑美国的经济复苏进程能否顺利。已有美联储官员表示，美国经济可能会在今年下半年放缓，甚至美联储可能重启量化宽松政策，以刺激经济进一步维持复苏局面。从美联储近期宣布继续保持利率于较低水平的信息来看，美国经济下半年走势仍需依赖宽松的货币政策给予支持，如此，则美元在宽松货币政策下恐难有强劲表现。</SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">但美元走软应该是在经济缓慢复苏，各主要经济体不再出现重大风险事件的前提下，然而这一局面尚存相当的不确定性。目前，欧洲的基本面状况并未出现根本好转，至今无人可以断言欧洲的主权债务危机不会继续恶化乃至进一步扩散。而英国自新政府上台以来，虽然减赤决心很大，无奈商品贸易赤字依旧有扩大迹象，英国央行不得不将利率水平维持现状，前段对英镑升息的预期正在逐步减弱。所以，一旦欧、英方面在下半年爆出任何突发性风险事件，导致避险情绪卷土重来，美元无疑将再次受益。当然，我们不能忽视新兴经济体在市场中的力量，新兴市场在日后走势中如表现强劲，对非美货币，尤其是商品货币将提供最大支持。</SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2. </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">技术分析</SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">DXY</FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美元指数上周跌至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">83.60</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">附近后回升，此处为美元自</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">09</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">年</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">3</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月下滑以来</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.618</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">斐波那契回调位，美指于前段时间突破此位后，现再度回测其支撑力度。周内美指如在此水平之上持稳，后市可望重新展开上行，目标首先指向</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">周均线</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">85.30</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">上方，进一步突破</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">85.80</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">水准后，美指上行目标将指向前期阶段高位</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">88.70</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">一线。但如美指在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">83.00</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">上方区域不能形成有效支持，恐将打开向</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">82.00</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">水平下滑的空间。</SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">EURUSD</FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">欧元上周虽未能站稳在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.2700</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">水平之上，但汇价已有效突破</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">10</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">周均线，且</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">周均线有上穿</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">10</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">周均线形成金叉的迹象，短期内显示强势。本周欧元如有效上破</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.2700</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">水平，后市上行目标可望看至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">100</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日均线</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.2950</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">一带。但若欧元不能站稳在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.2700</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">以上，并跌破</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.2600</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">区域，汇价恐继续向</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.2480</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">方向下行。</SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">GBPUSD</FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">英镑上周受利空数据影响跌下</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">10</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日均线，本周汇价如能持稳在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.5000</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">整数关口之上，后市仍可维持升势，目标再度指向前期高位</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.5200</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">区域。有效突破</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.5250</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">阻力位，英镑汇价可能进一步指向</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.5350</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.5400</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">下方地带。英镑下行支撑在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">100</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日均线</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.4990 - 1.5000</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">区间，汇价跌破</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.4950</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">一线，下行目标恐指向前期阶段性低点</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.4870</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">附近。</SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">USDJPY</FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">美日上周先抑后扬，汇价目前站在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">10</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日均线以上，并突破</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">88.50</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">一线。周内美日如继续持稳于</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">10</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日均线上方，上行目标可能指向</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">89.50</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">水平，上试</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">90.00</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">整数阻力如获成功，美日可望继续升向</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">90.50</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">水准。美日下方支持在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">88.00</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">附近，跌破</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">88.00</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">水平，汇价恐重新向前期低位</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">87.00</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">区域跌落，进一步下行目标指向</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">85.00</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">水准。</SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">AUDUSD</FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">澳元上周强力反弹，汇价暂时受阻于</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">55</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">周均线下方。澳元周内若有效站稳于</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.8800</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">以上，在突破前期高位</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.8850</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">地带后，汇价可能进一步打开向</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.9000</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">整数关口的上升空间。澳元下方支持依次位于</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.8650,0.8600</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">和</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.8550</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">水准，汇价只有在有效跌破</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">0.8500</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">一线后才可能重新转回跌势。</SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">XAUUSD</FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">黄金上周下破</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1200.00</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">整数大关后探至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1184.00</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">附近区域，尾市重又回到</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1210.00</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">上方，表明黄金走势并未转空。本周黄金如顺利上破</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1220.00</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，特别是</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1230.00</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">阻力区域，金价可望再度展开升势，目标依次指向前期阶段高位</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1250.00</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">区域和历史高位</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1265.00</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">一线，有效上破</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1265.00</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">水准，黄金将开始升至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1280.00 - 1300.00</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">的新的上涨空间。金价下方支持依然为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1200.00</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">关键支撑，之后为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1180.00</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">区域。</SPAN></P>
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