| <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">巴菲特无疑是当代最成功的股票投资大师 <SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">但他也难免有投资 <SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">"</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">走麦城 <SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">"</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">的实战经历 <SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">投资航空股就是他最大的投资败笔。 <SPAN lang=EN-US><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">"</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">在任何可以选择的时机里 <SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">我只是寻找一些税后投资报酬率最高的投资。 <SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">"</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">同时巴菲特向人们解释套利风险时说 <SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">:"</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">股票市场中 <SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">预期事件发生的机率有多大 <SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">?</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">你的现金可答应被套牢多久 <SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">?</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">有何释出股票的机会 <SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">------</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">比如说竞争性的购并报价 <SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">?</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">当预期事件未发生时 <SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">你要如何处理 <SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">?"</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">为了评估套利风险 <SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">你必须回答这四个问题。 <SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1989</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年的美国航空就符合巴菲特苛刻严谨的选股策略。 <SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1989</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年 <SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">7</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月 <SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">巴菲特控股的柏克夏公司投资美国航空 <SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">3.58</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿美元 <SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">并可从可转换非凡股中获利 <SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">9.25%</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">。该非凡股可转换成每股 <SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">60</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">美元的普通股。假如柏克夏十年后没兑换 <SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">那么美国航空必须买回这些股票。当时美国航空普通股每股股价是 <SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">50</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">美元。而从 <SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1981</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年至 <SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1988</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年 <SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">美国航空一直是令投资者印象深刻的蓝筹股 <SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">它的股东权益报酬率平均达 <SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">14%,</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">税前纯收益率在 <SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">8%</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">至 <SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">12%</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">之间。虽然巴菲特看好航空业 <SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">但究竟不如对传媒业投资那么熟悉 <SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">因此柏克夏投资的是可转换非凡股 <SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">类似优先股而并非是普通股。而且航空业进入门槛高 <SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">属于寡头竞争行业 <SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">巴菲特坚信美国航空的普通股应该会有不错的表现 <SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">他所投资的非凡股也会跟着水涨船高 <SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">然而结果却事与愿违。 <SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">航空公司经营的恶化始于廉价航空公司和破产航空公司纷纷采取自杀般的价格策略。航空服务作为一种商品 <SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">消费者的选择往往决定于价格。当廉价航空公司要争取市场占有率时 <SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">它们会不断地降价；而当一家航空公司公布破产后 <SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">它就能免于财务危机而继续提供运输业务 <SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">为了赚取现金 <SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">破产的航空公司会以低于成本的价格来提供服务。其结果是一场行业性的灾难 <SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">美国航空这样的蓝筹公司也给拖垮了。这笔投资是巴菲特为数不多的失败案例之一 <SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">另一次较大的败笔是投资所罗门公司的亏损。而美国航空业至今还未走出行业亏损的泥潭 <SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">大型航空公司破产仍时有耳闻。 <SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">类似巴菲特的投资失误在国内也曾发生过 <SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">最典型的案例莫过于家电行业 <SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">:</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">无论是彩电还是白色家电 <SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">都曾是蓝筹股的摇篮 <SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">长虹、海尔、春兰、康佳等股票一直是高价绩优股的代表。就连很少夸赞股市的经济学家吴敬琏教授也曾赞许过康佳的业绩 <SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">但受累于降价竞争策略 <SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">目前的家电行业已经沦为微利行业。 <SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">现在时值年报披露的高峰期 <SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">投资者在阅读报表时 <SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">切忌简单按市盈率选股。对于那些具有极大的固定成本和过剩生产力的行业 <SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">以及处于产品价格峰值的资源股 <SPAN lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">,</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">低市盈率并不是件好事。 |
